ESPN's Football Power Index gives Indiana a significant edge over Michigan as the Hoosiers look to rebound from their first loss of the season.
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Indiana football's first loss in nearly two years hasn't shaken the metrics' confidence in the Hoosiers.
Despite falling to Ohio State in heartbreaking fashion Saturday, No. 6 Indiana (6-1) enters its Week 8 matchup against Michigan (4-2) as a substantial favorite, according to ESPN's Football Power Index.
The Hoosiers will travel to Ann Arbor for a noon kickoff Saturday on FOX, looking to avoid consecutive losses for the first time under Curt Cignetti. And if the computers are right, Indiana has a strong chance of getting back on track.
ESPN FPI heavily favors Indiana
ESPN's latest FPI rankings place Indiana at No. 5 nationally, while Michigan sits at No. 32. That disparity is reflected in the model's projections for Saturday's matchup.
FPI gives Indiana an 82.2% chance of defeating the Wolverines, despite the game taking place at Michigan Stadium, where the Hoosiers haven't won since 1967.
ESPN's SP+ model is somewhat less bullish on Indiana, projecting a 26-18 Hoosiers victory and giving IU a 69% probability of winning.
Oddsmakers also favor Indiana, though not quite as heavily as FPI. The Hoosiers opened the week as approximately seven-point favorites.
It's a significant departure from the outlook entering last week's clash with Ohio State, when FPI gave Indiana just a 47.8% chance of winning. One week later, the Hoosiers are back in the unfamiliar position of being heavily favored on the road against one of college football's traditional powers.
What the projections mean for Indiana
History isn't on Indiana's side entering Saturday. The Hoosiers have lost 21 consecutive games in Ann Arbor and haven't taken down Michigan on the road since a 27-20 victory in 1967.
But this isn't the same Indiana program that accumulated all those losses.
Cignetti's Hoosiers have won 22 of their last 23 games, including a 20-15 victory over Michigan in Bloomington in 2024. Saturday presents an opportunity to make another statement on just how far the program has come.
The Wolverines have leaned heavily on their defense this season, which allows just 16.2 points per game. Their offense, meanwhile, has struggled to generate consistent production, averaging 22.7 points per contest.
Michigan's uncertainty at quarterback adds another wrinkle. Bryce Underwood was benched during Saturday's 21-18 win over Penn State in favor of freshman Tommy Carr, who helped spark the Wolverines' offense in the second half.
For a team still firmly in the College Football Playoff picture, Saturday is about more than avoiding a second consecutive loss, and ESPN's computers certainly expect the Hoosiers to respond.
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