Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Thousands of people protest India’s voter roll revision despite government crackdown, Pakistan’s government enacts emergency rule in opposition stronghold of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and a ruling party lawmaker in Nepal faces blackmail accusations.
Modi Faces Down New Protests
Thousands of protesters converged on New Delhi over the weekend to demand the resignation of Gyanesh Kumar, India’s chief election commissioner. Opponents accuse Kumar of overseeing a manipulated voter roll revision that improves electoral prospects for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The government insists that only those who don’t belong on the rolls were removed.
On Oct. 10, security forces in New Delhi detained as many as 7,000 people, and authorities closed metro stations and shut off mobile internet services. The protests, coming on the heels of mass protests against India’s education policies this summer, threaten to become the biggest sustained street mobilization against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his 12 years in power.
The protests—taking place in large cities across the country—are unlikely to die down anytime soon, but it’s worth putting the movement in perspective.
Though tens of thousands of people have mobilized so far, in a country of India’s size, this doesn’t equate to a truly national mass movement. More Indians protested against sexual assault in 2012 and 2013 and corruption in 2011—all during the rule of Modi’s predecessor, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of the Indian National Congress party.
There is also a big difference between the demonstrations in India and the mass movements that ousted governments in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka in recent years: Modi’s government remains popular. Though many Indians—especially young ones—are increasingly angry about misgovernance and economic stress, a critical mass of the population still backs Modi.
However, Modi can’t simply shrug off the ongoing protests and assume that things will settle down. To start, the protesters have ample momentum, and many of them are part of the Cockroach Janta Party, which spearheaded the demonstrations that led to the resignation of India’s education minister in July. That marked a rare case of the Modi government giving in to protest demands.
That galvanized the protesters, who believe that they can be successful this time, too. The government’s heavy-handed tactics against the protests will likely prompt them to double down rather than dial back their efforts. Those targeted by the state, including Cockroach leaders detained over the weekend, have defiantly declared their commitment to staying in the streets.
From the protesters’ perspective, there is a tremendous amount at stake. They say the voter roll revision, which removed around 130 million names, will benefit the BJP by eliminating potential votes against the ruling party, particularly among members of India’s Muslim community. The changes come at a key electoral moment: Seven states go to the polls in 2027.
Among them are Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state and its biggest electoral prize, as well as Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, Himachal Pradesh, and Modi’s home state of Gujarat. Based on total electorate data from the country’s 2024 general elections, this equates to around 30 percent of the country’s total voter base.
New Delhi faces a tough choice. Giving in to protesters would likely embolden them to demand more. But if Modi’s government rejects their concerns, demonstrators could grow angrier—and the movement could grow larger.
The voter roll protests don’t threaten the government’s hold on power. But assuming that they become sustained, Modi might need to take certain steps to reassert that hold on power, starting with reassuring coalition partners who feel uneasy about the pressure from the streets.
What We’re Following
Pakistan imposes emergency in opposition stronghold. Pakistan’s government enacted emergency rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Sunday, effectively placing it under Islamabad’s control. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Sohail Afridi was detained, along with some of his cabinet ministers.
Islamabad justified the move based on what it described as the provincial government’s inability to curb terrorism. That is a likely pretext for a political move, however: Pakistan’s powerful military oversees counterterrorism policy in practice, and Afridi and his government belong to the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party led by imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
PTI launched a “long march” this month from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa toward Islamabad, intended to pressure the government to free Khan. Pakistan’s leadership likely imposed emergency rule to make it more difficult for PTI members and supporters to mobilize in the province and to put the party on the back foot as it looks to build momentum for its march.
Nepali MP denies blackmail allegations. A lawmaker with Nepal’s ruling Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Khagendra Sunar, has denied blackmail allegations after media outlet Jana Aastha reported allegations that Sunar is featured in an audio recording that suggests that he offered marriage to a woman, produced an explicit video, and then threatened to blackmail her.
Sunar insists that the recording is generated by artificial intelligence and that he is being targeted for raising concerns about corruption within the police. Nepali law enforcement officials are expected to investigate.
The case is notable given that the reformist RSP swept into power in March with a platform almost exclusively focused on anti-corruption. This isn’t the first time that a party member has faced similar allegations; RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichhane was charged with embezzlement in 2024. But Sunar’s case is one of the first since the RSP took over the government.
The only other publicized case involved Nepali Interior Minister Sudan Gurung stepping down during the initial days of the administration amid concerns about his financial activities. Gurung was later reinstated after an investigation found that he did nothing wrong.
Nuclear power in Bangladesh. The Rooppur nuclear power facility in Bangladesh achieved a milestone on Sunday, undertaking a controlled chain reaction for the first time—a key step to becoming fully operational that is known as “first criticality.” Once it is up and running, the Rooppur facility is projected to supply more than 10 percent of Bangladesh’s energy demand.
This is significant for a couple reasons. The facility could eventually give Bangladesh, suffering a severe energy crisis, an energy security boost. Nuclear power could become a badly needed alternative fuel for a country that is heavily dependent on hydrocarbon imports from the Middle East and has made little headway in developing clean energy resources.
At the same time, the Rooppur facility is heavily funded by Russia, which is reportedly financing nearly $12 billion in loans—close to the total estimated value of the project. This means that progress on the facility could result in friction between Bangladesh and the United States at a moment when their bilateral relationship is strikingly smooth.
FP’s Most Read This Week
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- Russian Sabotage in Europe Is No Longer ‘Symbolic’ by Sam Skove
- To Understand France’s Unrest, Look Back to 1982 by Howard W. French
Under the Radar
The International Olympic Committee has announced the seven finalists to host the 2036 Summer Olympics—and India is one of them. The group will be winnowed down to a short list by March. The other finalists are Germany, Hungary, Qatar, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey.
India has never hosted the Olympics, and it would appear to be a strong candidate, given its status as the world’s most populous country and one of its largest economies. It also has experience putting on major global sporting events: It hosted the Commonwealth Games in 2010 and is expected to do so again in 2030.
However, India’s candidacy will face challenges. Its management of the 2010 Commonwealth Games—four years before Modi took office—was heavily criticized for corruption and profligate spending. There will also be concerns about health and sanitation, especially water quality, as well as air pollution.
If India lands the 2036 Olympic Games, it would be a major coup and an opportunity to showcase to the world some of its major achievements—from digitization to infrastructure development.