The biggest challenge will not be predicting the winner of the first round of the presidential election, but rather predicting voter turnout, sociologist Dobromir Zhivkov of Market Links told bTV.
His analysis is based on a national poll jointly funded and conducted by bTV and Market Links among 1,006 adults between October 13 and 19, 2026. The survey used face-to-face interviews and an online questionnaire.
According to the poll, the presidential ticket of Iliana Iotova and Kiril Valchev would receive 47.3% of the vote on October 25. Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev rank second with 30.6%, followed by Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin with 10.3%.
If parliamentary elections were held in October, Progressive Bulgaria would have received 32% of the vote, followed by We Continue the Change with 10.2% and GERB with 9.6%. Democratic Bulgaria would have garnered around 7%, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) 5.6%, and Vazrazhdane 4.4%.
The national survey was conducted among 1,006 adults across Bulgaria between October 13 and 19, 2026, using face-to-face interviews and an online questionnaire. It was jointly funded and carried out by bTV and Market Links.
Edited by Ivo Ivanov
Translated by Kostadin Atanasov