America’s most Republican state is no longer considered entirely safe for the GOP in the race for its sole House seat, according to a leading election forecaster.
Inside Elections moved Wyoming’s at-large congressional district from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” in its latest House ratings, published Thursday.
The change means a Republican defeat would still be a major upset, but the seat is no longer in the forecaster’s most secure category.
The downgrade is remarkable given Wyoming’s recent voting history.
President Donald Trump won 71.6 percent of the state’s vote in the 2024 presidential election, compared with 25.84 percent for Kamala Harris.
Wyoming’s official results recorded 192,633 votes for Trump and 69,527 for Harris.
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Trump's 45.76-point victory was his largest margin in any state, while his vote share was the highest recorded by a presidential nominee in Wyoming, surpassing Ronald Reagan’s 70.51 percent in 1984.
“The most Republican state in the country shouldn’t be anywhere close to the House battleground,” Inside Elections' Jacob Runashkin and Inshara Ali wrote in the forecaster's October 15 update. “But Trump is barely above water according to private polling, and GOP nominee Chuck Gray, the state secretary of state, is deeply unpopular statewide.”
Gray won a crowded Republican primary with 31,224 votes, or 25.3 percent, finishing five points ahead of his nearest rival.
Democratic nominee Lisa Kinney, a lawyer and former state senator, won her primary with 9,344 votes, or 76.5 percent.
However, Kinney entered the campaign with limited resources. Federal Election Commission records show her campaign raised $17,946 and held $2,009.75 in cash as of July 29.
The seat is open because Republican Representative Harriet Hageman is running for the Senate. Libertarian Shawn Johnson and Constitution Party candidate Jeff Haggit are also on the November 3 ballot.
Inside Elections said Gray’s “unique vulnerabilities” could produce Wyoming’s closest House contest since Democrat Gary Trauner narrowly lost in 2006 and 2008.
Other forecasters continue to place the contest firmly in the Republican column, meaning the rating change is not evidence that Democrats are favored to win.
It does, however, suggest that candidate-specific concerns and Trump’s standing may have made an extraordinarily Republican state less predictable than its recent election results would indicate.
This is a developing story. More to follow.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.