AUSTIN - While I got ya, here are nine things and one crazy prediction:
1. Just who is Texas?
I have no clue. Neither does Steve Sarkisian. Through six games, the Longhorns have yet to establish a clear-cut offensive identity. Nothing much is working for this 4-2 team that is only 1-2 in SEC play. The problem is even more troubling because Sarkisian said part of the reasoning behind firing defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and hiring Will Muschamp would free Sark to focus more on his offensive duties. How's that worked out? That brings Texas to Saturday's game against Ole Miss, which is the biggest in the tenure of both Arch Manning and Sarkisian. "I think I've got to continue to remain creative but at the same time not lose sight of who we are," Sarkisian said. "I can't not be creative because I'm trying to make it easy." … It won't surprise me if Sarkisian is planning to play little-used, backup quarterback KJ Lacey Jr. some in a part-time role to throw Ole Miss off-balance with a package for the better dual-threat weapon. Lacey, who was a four-star recruit, looked solid in the spring game but has played only 31 snaps in three games. Yes, I expect Manning to start, but after saying he would evaluate everything in his program, on Monday he announced zero changes. If he goes the entire game with Manning and the stodgy, ineffective offense fails to produce first downs, points and a win, the boos at Royal-Memorial Stadium figure to be the loudest ever since the stadium was built in 1924. Surely, Sarkisian realizes what's at stake. But the overall direction of his program a year after missing the playoffs is on full alert and so much bigger than who takes the snaps at quarterback. I believe many Longhorn fans have already checked out and don't think Sarkisian will ever win a championship. Another whiff on the CFP would suggest a downward trajectory and likely not go over well with the school administration or its fan base. I would find it incredible if Texas is already considering or discussing a change at head coach because Sarkisian resurrected a dormant program that had fallen off severely until Nick Saban's offensive coordinator arrived and made it a national contender. That is real progress, but everyone knows sports is about what you've done lately. Or not done. And swallowing his contract that goes through 2031 and currently pays him $11.05 million. Texas would have to pay up to a $60 million buyout. Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte dismissed such talk and told the Houston Chronicle, "We should not be having that discussion. It's not warranted. We've just got to work through it." A Texas source told the Chronicle that the school's bigwigs are "fully behind Steve, no cracks (at all)."… Best-case scenario: Texas catches fire, goes on a roll as it did last season after a 3-2 start, looks like the team we all expected in August and makes the CFP. Worst-case scenario: Texas fixes nothing, Lacey eventually replaces Manning but plays like a rookie quarterback not ready for SEC play, injured edge rusher Colin Simmons opts out the rest of the season to protect his NFL prospects as a high, high, first-round draft choice and Sarkisian gets fired. I don't buy either scenario, but both prospects are reasonable. I don't think the Longhorns can win 'em all from here on out, but I don't think they totally implode and go 4-8 either. If I had to guess, I'd expect Texas to finish 7-5, Manning goes pro and Sarkisian makes major staff and system changes.
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2. Too big to fail?
Yes, a 24-team College Football Playoff is way, way too big, but the powers who run the sport know it cannot fail because no one can kill the best sport in the world. Did you watch the last weekend slate in regular-season history? Those games were riveting, must-watch television. But that doesn't mean going to 24 isn't wrong. It totally and completely makes no sense. If this holds, it means the playoff field increases 500% since 2013 when four teams were invited to the postseason. It's not yet done, but ESPN and the CFP have "a handshake agreement" to go to 24. … Del Conte strongly supports going to 24. "You have bowl games that are no longer what they used to be and a different ecosystem. In my mind, you want big games and to not get punished for playing big (non-conference) games."
3. Survey says
A survey by The Athletic of more than 6,300 college football fans revealed 18% support the mega-field and 82% opposed. But it's coming and soon, like next season. Yes, 12 more teams get access. Duh. If it's all about access, let's go to a 48-team field. More access, right? You think I'm kidding? The 24 starting in 2027 will almost certainly grow to 30 in 2031. It's inevitable. … I believe the 24-team bracket will save the jobs of more coaches because the bar has been lowered. How can you fire Coach X when he made the playoff? So it will save some athletic departments money. … I also think the regular season will be somewhat diminished, but no one can kill college football, no matter how hard the people in charge try. It's just too good a product. … I do not think this will convince ADs and coaches to schedule more marquee non-conference games like Texas-Ohio State. That is an outlandish idea because coaches want to bank easy wins. Bigger intersectional games is a myth. Del Conte, however, said, "I would think so because if you lose (a high-profile non-conference game in the future), you still have an opportunity of make the playoff." The agreement will include a requirement that Power 4 conference team must play games against 10 Power 4 opponents. … Texas is still scheduled to play a home-and-home series with Notre Dame, starting in 2028. "Our philosophy of scheduling great (non-conference) regular-season games will remain what we do. The fans want us to play those games. Again, we don't know where the 24-team (plan) is. Nothing's done yet." … Del Conte addressed for the first time the college student who went on the field Saturday and taunted a Gators player had been identified as a Central Texas man who goes to college in Florida (not at Florida). "He's not a UT student. He's banned from DKR permanently." Del Conte said he's not positive how the student was given a pass for access to the field.
4. Expansion on horizon?
I believe conference expansion will happen, but not immediately. A very good SEC source told me this past week he doesn't expect the SEC or Big Ten to suddenly look to add teams. Of course, Notre Dame would change that and be hotly pursued by every league including the Sun Belt. That won't happen unless maybe the Irish lose two more games and get left out of the CFP. But even that factor would dissolve, once the bracket goes to 24. They might as well call it the 23-and-Notre Dame bracket. … If expansion were to happen again, I'd bet the Big Ten would go hard after brand names like Miami and Florida State. That would give that league a foothold in a brand-new state with tons more eyeballs, and the addition of the Seminoles would give Big Ten members a brand name it can actually beat. … As for the SEC, to its credit, it likes contiguous states, unlike the Big Ten, which doesn't care about travel or classroom time and would probably invite the University of Moscow if it had a football team. Is there a University of Moscow? If the SEC really wanted to grow its basketball brand, it should invite Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and Houston. But we all know basketball doesn't move the needle at all. But it might consider the Blue Devils and Tar Heels for respectable football, strong hoops and one new state to expand the audience unless the SEC prefers Virginia over one of those.
5. On the defensive
Sean Miller is fully aware that his Texas men's basketball team was lacking on defense. But he's very confident that will change this season, which starts Nov. 2 at home against Chicago State. The Longhorns have their final exhibition game Sunday against Rick Pitino and St. John's at Madison Square Garden. Texas is ranked No. 7 in the AP Top 25 preseason poll, one of seven SEC teams in the rankings including No. 1 Florida and No. 8 Tennessee, despite having only one returning starter in center Matas Vokietaitis. "I really love our freshmen," the second-year head coach said, praising Austin Goosby and Marcus Spears Jr. "Austin Goosby performed well. He took a big jump against Arizona State into the second one (against SMU). Austin has the ability to get steals, blocks, deflections. He has great instincts on defense. He really does. He can impact the game as much on that side of the ball as on offense. Marcus is also going to impact our defense in a positive way. Both have great athletic talent. He has a big upside and really jumps out to me." Miller's looking for at least 30 deflections in a game but said, "We struggled to get the number last year. This year we can get that number. We're there easier." … Backup point guard Mikey Lewis is three weeks removed from foot surgery, but he' expected back some time in December. … He likes his swingmen Elyjah Freeman from Auburn and Amari Evans from Tennessee. "Elyjah makes two to three plays in 20 minutes and you go, ‘Wow, I don't know if anyone can make those plays.' But then there are times he just blends. We want him to be more of a factor more often." … Miller looks forward to going up against Pitino, a former Providence coach who once recruited the hot-shot point guard but lost him to Pitt. Former Chicago Bulls head coach Billy Donovan was his recruiting host. He saw how hard Providence practiced and told Donovan, "I'm not sure I could work that hard."
6. Things I think I know
I think last weekend was the craziest college football Saturday ever. EVER. … I think Will Stein is the midseason Coach of the Year. The first-year Kentucky head coach, however, needs to be a tad more conservative after disdaining a field goal on fourth-and-4 at the Oklahoma 10 that could have given his Wildcats a 17-13 lead, but he survived. … I think officiating generally has been horrible this season. From Western Michigan getting robbed with the extra second for Michigan to no pass interference call and no extra second for Notre Dame against BYU as the Big 12 says it should have to no pass interference against Georgia in the Alabama game to the screwed-up onside kick allowed to Tennessee against Texas, it's been horrendous. Something needs to be done. … I really, really think pass interference should be reviewable. Or if 20 reviews a game would make for six-hour games, how about giving each coach two PI challenges a game and let them keep them if they win the challenge? This is necessary because the impact is just too pronounced. … I think I'm shocked Will Muschamp doesn't blitz more. Or at all. … I think I'd love to see a halfback pass or a double reverse or a Bumerooskie or anything from Sarkisian. … I caught a lot of abuse from Texas Tech fans for putting the Red Raiders at 13th in my Associated Press Top 25 football ballot. I just think they are a good team, but not elite. A less-than-taxing schedule doesn't help Tech's case, but I do think Tech can get inside the top 10 easily enough.
7. High on hardball
Texas was ranked second behind LSU in next season's top five college baseball programs by D1 Baseball. "Only LSU can rival the brand power of Texas baseball or the financial resources behind the program, which should keep this program a player acquisition juggernaut forever," it said. "Add in the track record of Schlossnagle, who led TCU to five CWS trips before taking the Aggies and Longhorns to a combined three more, and it's easy to see why we are so bullish on the immediate and long-term futures of Texas baseball."
8. Scattershooting
While wondering whatever happened to former Longhorn quarterback Garrett Gilbert.
9. On the couch
Watched "Animals," a Netflix movie featuring Ben Affleck as a Los Angeles mayoral candidate. He, along with his wife, played by Kerry Washington, are caught up as victims in a child kidnapping case and hard pressed to come up with big ransom money. Just no real emotional connection to any of the characters. The ending tied up loose ends way too abruptly and unrealistically, so approach with very low expectations. Gave it 4 ducks.
Crazy prediction
Two Big 12 teams will make the CFP.
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There’s more to Houston with the Chronicle. Subscribe today for just 25¢.This article originally published at Predictions on UT: A 7-5 season, Arch Manning turns pro and Steve Sarkisian makes changes | Bohls.