Max Verstappen heads into the United States Grand Prix knowing that victory in Austin would be enough to prevent Kimi Antonelli from securing the world championship on Sunday, regardless of where his rivals finish. However, an Antonelli win would also bring the Dutchman's own title hopes to an end, irrespective of his finishing position.
The Red Bull driver currently sits fourth in the standings with 221 points, 119 behind championship leader Antonelli. George Russell is second with 238 points, while Lewis Hamilton occupies third place with 229.
Verstappen's recent form has kept him in contention, with seven podium finishes in his last eight races, including two victories and three second-place finishes. His wins in Malaysia and Singapore have put him in a position to delay Antonelli's coronation in Austin, where he also boasts an impressive record.
An Antonelli victory would eliminate Verstappen
With no Sprint scheduled in Austin, a maximum of 25 points is available in each of the six remaining Grands Prix. After Sunday's race, just 125 points will remain up for grabs.
That means an Antonelli victory would mathematically eliminate Verstappen from championship contention. Even if the Dutchman finishes second, he would collect only 18 points, leaving him 126 behind the Mercedes driver with just 125 available over the final five rounds.
Photo: Race Pictures
For Antonelli to secure the championship in Austin, three conditions must be met: he must win the race, Russell must finish ninth or lower, and Hamilton must finish fifth or lower.
The countback rule also plays a role in these calculations. Antonelli currently has eight Grand Prix victories, meaning that if two drivers finish the season level on points, the championship will be awarded to the driver with the most race wins.
How a third consecutive victory could change the picture
Simply finishing ahead of Russell or Hamilton will not be enough for Verstappen to keep his championship hopes alive. His priority must be to beat Antonelli.
A third consecutive victory for the four-time world champion would prevent Antonelli from securing the title in Austin, regardless of where Russell and Hamilton finish. If the Italian fails to win on Sunday, the championship battle will continue at the Mexico City Grand Prix.
There are three possible scenarios for Verstappen in Austin:
- Antonelli wins: Verstappen is mathematically eliminated from the championship, regardless of his finishing position. Even second place would leave him 126 points behind with only 125 available.
- Verstappen wins: Antonelli cannot secure the championship in Austin, regardless of Russell's and Hamilton's results, meaning the title fight continues in Mexico City.
- Neither driver wins: Antonelli cannot clinch the championship, as victory is essential for him to secure the title on Sunday.
Verstappen faces desperate battle for a fifth world title
Even if Verstappen manages to prevent Antonelli from securing the championship this weekend, his own chances of claiming a fifth world title remain extremely slim.
If the Red Bull driver wins all six remaining races, he will finish the season with 371 points. For Verstappen to finish ahead of Antonelli, the Mercedes driver would need to score no more than 30 additional points, requiring him to average fewer points than a seventh-place finish across the remaining races.
There is also a scenario in which the two drivers could finish level on points. If Antonelli scores exactly 31 more points while Verstappen wins every remaining race, both would end the season on 371 points with eight victories each. In that case, the number of second-place finishes would determine the champion.