Rome: Rising prices, rather than food shortages, pose the biggest risk to global food security at present, a United Nations (UN) expert told Xinhua in a recent interview.
Speaking ahead of the World Food Forum, chief economist at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), Maximo Torero, called for better coordination and innovation in order to make agrifood systems more resilient to shocks.
Food prices now carry a "risk premium," Torero said, rising not because food is scarce but because markets fear shortages in the future.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a route used for up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilizers; renewed restrictions on Black Sea grain shipments; and a 90 percent chance of a strong El Nino are all adding to the risks, he said.
The pressure is already showing. The FAO Food Price Index, a benchmark of international food commodity prices, averaged 136.0 points in September, up 1.5 percent from August and 5.8 percent from a year earlier.
Torero said the situation is more complex than in 2022, when other exporters quickly made up for lost Ukrainian grain. Supplies of 25 to 30 percent of agricultural inputs are now restricted, and new fertilizer capacity takes five to 10 years to build.
Farmers are applying less urea, which could cut future yields, and switching from wheat and maize crops to soyabeans. With freight costs rising and shipping through the Panama Canal and the Red Sea also restricted, "we're moving into a world of 'just in case'," he said.
Nevertheless, global cereal stocks remain ample, Torero said, with the FAO forecasting a stocks-to-use ratio of 31.7 percent for the 2026/27 season. The most pressing problem is affordability, with net food-importing countries in Africa, some in Asia, and small developing island states to be hit first.
Since it takes three to six months for commodity prices to reach retail shelves, consumers will feel the impact from the end of this year. The world is not yet in a food crisis, but the situation is slowly deteriorating, Torero warned.
He underlined that China, the world's largest food producer and consumer and a major importer, has been preparing for both natural and geopolitical risks by diversifying imports, keeping its market open and improving stock management.
China's urea exports are helping to bring down prices, he noted, expressing hope that this will continue and urging major producers and importers not to distort markets or restrict exports of farm inputs.
To strengthen resilience, Torero called for closer coordination among development banks, financial institutions and donors. He also urged greater investment in fertilizer alternatives such as green ammonia, more efficient fertilizer use, renewable energy for agriculture and better forecasting.
His view echoes the theme of the 2026 World Food Forum, "Innovate Today. Nourish Tomorrow." Its flagship event, currently being held at FAO headquarters in Rome from Oct. 8 to 16, brings together youth, scientists and investors, with 38 countries presenting investment opportunities.
The agrifood system has weathered repeated shocks in recent years, but "there is a limit to resilience," Torero underlined. While El Nino cannot be avoided, conflicts can, and "right now, we have to watch every risk," he said.