Two teams that began undefeated will try to hit the brakes in the loss column Oct. 17 at noon at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown. The Cincinnati Bearcats began 4-0 in September, but got punched in the mouth at Arizona 34-7 in their first game of October.
West Virginia started the second season of head coach Rich Rodriguez 2.0 at 3-0. Since then, they have lost three straight Big 12 games to Oklahoma State, Iowa State and that same Arizona team that beat UC. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita and company outscored the Mountaineers 52-31 Oct. 10.
Stopping run is key for UC, WVU
The Bearcats were thrashing teams in the run game until Arizona, which held them well below their average with just 74 yards. UC still is No. 12 among FBS schools, averaging 230.8 yards per game.
West Virginia has the second coming of "heyday" Mountaineer teams featuring running back Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, who averaged over 100 yards rushing each in three straight wins over the Bearcats in 2005, 2006 and 2007.
Current WVU quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. and running back Cam Cook have combined for 1,465 yards, making them the best tandem rushing threat in football. WVU averages 295.5 yards on the ground, behind only the service academies Army, Air Force and Navy.
"They're going fast," UC Bearcats head coach Scott Satterfield said. "Getting the calls from the sideline, making sure you're on the same page (is important). That's part of why they do go fast, to screw with the defensive call. That's another thing that's going to be a challenge."
Who will throw better, UC's JC French IV or WVU's Michael Hawkins Jr.?
In terms of completion percentage, Cincinnati Bearcats QB JC French IV is No. 20 in the nation, just shy of 70%. West Virginia's Hawkins is No. 128 of 129 at just over 52%. But in passing yards per completion, Hawkins leads the nation at 18.19 yards per reception, thanks to receiver DJ Epps, who leads the nation at 28.07 yards per reception and has four touchdown catches.
French is No. 96 at just over 11 yards per reception, and his deep threat, wide receiver JV Gibson, was shut out at Arizona.
"Their offense is really good and capable of scoring a lot of points," French said. "I think we have to score a lot of points as well. I think we're capable of that. I think it's going to be a high-scoring game and it's going to be fun."
How Cincinnati Bearcats have played in Morgantown
West Virginia leads the all-time series 18-3-1, with UC not winning in Morgantown since 2008, when Tony Pike hit Kazeem Alli for an overtime touchdown in a 26-23 victory. UC Bearcats defensive line coach Walter Stewart played in that game and in the following year's win in Nippert over the Mountaineers. UC's only other win in Morgantown came in 2003 when Chet Ervin hit five field goals and the Bearcats handed WVU's Rich Rodriguez his lone loss in the series. The Mountaineers are 9-2-1 in Morgantown vs. UC and 9-1 in Cincinnati.
3 bold predictions for Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers
1. UC, WVU will both feature 100-yard rushers
The only game Jacksonville State transfer Cam Cook was held below 100 yards rushing was in a blowout against Tennessee-Martin when he was out of the game. Quarterback Hawkins was "held" to 96 yards vs. UT-Martin and 98 vs. Arizona, but passed the century mark in the other four games.
UC's Gi'Bran Payne has had three games of 100-plus yards and Cole Tabb has one. It's hard to imagine UC getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage the way they were against Arizona.
2. UC QB JC French IV will have to throw for over 200 yards
Outside of the Victory Bell win over Miami University and the Western Carolina game, UC's approach has been ultra-conservative. If you look at West Virginia's three losses, they were outpassed by a considerable margin. Oklahoma State threw for 389 yards, Iowa State for 312 and Arizona for 341.
French's high was 309 against the Miami's RedHawks. The numbers look like he'll need at least 200 here to avoid West Virginia crowding the line.
3. UC, WVU over/under is 63.5, but final score will be under
Even JC French has predicted a high-scoring game here, but if UC defensive coordinator Nate Woody can somehow keep the Mountaineers under 30, you would think UC has enough offensive firepower to win. West Virginia's season-low in scoring came in their opener, a 31-24 win over Coastal Carolina.
Though UC allowed 34 points to Arizona, those that stayed up to watch the game know it could have very easily been 10-10 at the half, which probably changes the complexion of the second half.
What West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez said about Cincinnati Bearcats
In his remarks to West Virginia play-by-play veteran Tony Caridi this week, "Rich Rod" spoke of UC's preparation time between the Oct. 3 loss to Arizona and being able to watch West Virginia lose to Arizona Oct. 10, 52-31.
"You expect to see new things and inevitably you usually don't see a lot of new stuff because they usually just work on their fundamentals, which everybody wants a week for fundamentals," Rodriguez said. "But they do a lot of things formation-wise on special teams; I think they will do some new blitzes defensively and then from their offense, we've got to be ready for just about anything."
West Virginia averages 36 points per game, but gives up nearly 33. In their three straight Big 12 losses, they've given up 41 at home to Oklahoma State, 45 on the road at Iowa State and 52 at home to Arizona.
"We know what we're doing can be fixed, but it's got to get fixed in a hurry schematically and fundamentally," Rodriguez said.
Possession time has been an issue with UC and WVU, with both averaging about 29 minutes per contest. The Mountaineers had the ball nearly 36 minutes to Arizona's 24 last week, and they ran 104 plays to Arizona's 51. Obviously, the Wildcats made them pay.
"Last week, we probably had some more deep shots, but we didn't want to take them because we wanted to control the ball," Rodriguez said. "This week, we are going to have to have some patience."
Predictions for Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers
Arizona Republic – West Virginia 38-35
Heartland College Sports – UC 35-31
EerSports (247)– West Virginia 35-32
Enquirer prediction for Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers
The Enquirer has been right on every game thus far, but off on the final scores (as dramatically shown at Arizona). In the preseason, I picked this as a 23-17 UC win. That was well before the running exploits of Cook and Hawkins. No one has stopped their running game, but every team that's beaten them has won in passing yards.
Because I think this win is crucial to UC's success this season, with three Top 25s in a row coming up, I'll stick to the win prediction, but up the score by 10 points on each side for a 33-27 Bearcats win. As always, turnovers will be crucial, and the Bearcats had an extra week to prepare.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Bold predictions for Cincinnati Bearcats Big 12 game at West Virginia