Oil-rich Alberta holds a nonbinding referendum on Monday on whether the western province should secede from Canada, a debate many believe will not be settled by what is widely expected to be a defeat for the separatist cause.
Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Alberta voters oppose splitting from Canada. Economic grievances have fueled the independence campaign in the province, which is home to 5 million people and slightly smaller than Texas despite having one-sixth the population.
The Alberta separatist movement adds to the pressures on Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has made defending Canada's sovereignty a central mission as he confronts US tariffs and President Donald Trump's repeated calls for Canada to become the 51st state.
Many Alberta separatists believe the Liberal Party-led federal government in Ottawa has constrained the Conservative-governed province'soil industry through environmental policies, and that Alberta, the country's energy heartland, contributes more to Canada's economy than it receives in return.
"Canada has an imbalanced system which feeds the central population and government at the expense of the outlying producing provinces such as Alberta," said Cory Morgan, founder of a pro-separation advertising organization called Pathway to Independence.
Carney, who grew up in Alberta, spent much of the past week campaigning for the "stay" side, urging supporters to vote and appealing to national pride.
Polls are scheduled to close at 8 p.m. MDT on Monday (0200 GMT on Tuesday) with results published as they arrive.
An Angus Reid poll released Friday showed 66% of Albertans plan to vote to remain in Canada, but three in five believe "there will never be an end to the separatist movement" in the province.
"This issue is not going away now. Because the separatists are mobilized. They've networked. They're connected," said Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt in Calgary.
While separatist sentiment has existed in the province for decades, Premier Danielle Smith is the first Alberta leader to put the question to voters. Smith, who has urged Albertans to remain in Canada, called the referendum after months of pressure from a small but vocal flank of her governing United Conservative Party.
If a majority votes in favor, Smith has said she would seek a binding referendum on separation.
"Separating, to my point of view, is completely ridiculous," said Ross Watson of Calgary after casting his ballot in favor of "remain" in an advance poll last week.
"I think the grievances that people have are completely unfounded. But I also think these people will probably never shut up."
Sending a message
Monday's referendum is the first time a vote on separation from the rest of Canada has been held in a province outside majority French-speaking Quebec, where separatist sentiment derives from language and cultural differences.
In Alberta, the issue is more about dollars than identity. Carney has appealed to national pride in arguing Alberta should remain part of Canada.
"Canada is not a transaction between provinces. It's not about gross and net, gives and gets," Carney said Friday in Red Deer, Alberta.
Partly to address the grievances that have driven separatist sentiment in Alberta, Carney has overturned some environmental policies and supported a proposed oil pipeline that would increase Alberta's exports to Asia.
Among the one-third of Albertans who would vote in favor of a future binding referendum on separation, 60% told pollsters their motivation was to "send a message" to Canada's federal government. Only 37% of respondents to the Angus Reid poll said their motivation was an independent nation.
Separatist groups have published transition plans, but key questions about how independence would work on issues such as defence, currency and border controls remain unresolved.
Bratt said the real question is where the movement goes from here.
"Do they focus on generating support for a future referendum? Or do they splinter off and create their own party — a real, powerful separatist party?" Bratt said.