The emergence of the Rainbow Coalition, backed by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, has intensified political realignments and divisions in several states ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The coalition, which seeks the re-election of President Bola Tinubu while supporting candidates of other parties for governorship, senatorial and other legislative positions, has unsettled political calculations in states including Adamawa, Kwara, Edo, Rivers, Benue, Nasarawa and Ondo.
The development gained momentum following Wike’s inclusion in the Tinubu/APC 2027 Presidential Campaign Council, a move analysts said signalled the acceptance of the coalition’s strategy at the centre.
Before the campaign council was unveiled in Abuja last week, some APC governors, led by Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma, had rejected the arrangement, insisting that they would support only APC candidates.
Wike, however, has maintained that his support for Tinubu’s re-election does not mean he must support every APC governor or candidate.
In Adamawa State, the Wike-backed faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has continued its political activities following the resolution of an internal dispute over the party’s governorship candidate.
The Independent National Electoral Commission’s list of candidates reportedly recognised Chief Maurice Michael Vonobolki as the PDP governorship candidate rather than Caleb Andrew, who had claimed the ticket on social media.
The party’s state secretary, Alhaji Shekarau Yerima, said the faction had complied with electoral guidelines and the party’s constitution, expressing confidence in its chances in 2027.
In Kwara State, the coalition has exposed divisions within the ruling APC over Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s succession plan.
Aggrieved APC chieftains, members of the Otoge Progressives (TOP), the G15 group of governorship aspirants and politicians associated with former Senate President Bukola Saraki are among those whose interests could complicate the ruling party’s political calculations.
The coalition gained visibility in the state on August 26, when Senator Saliu Mustapha, who defected from the APC to the PDP, unveiled its state chapter in Ilorin. He also declared his intention to challenge AbdulRazaq for the Kwara Central senatorial seat.
PDP Publicity Secretary Olusegun Olushola Adewara said the party had no objection to Tinubu’s re-election bid, stressing that its priority was to defeat AbdulRazaq in the state.
In Edo State, the coalition remains active despite the death of its former leader, Chief Dan Orbih, who spearheaded the arrangement during the 2024 governorship election.
PDP state secretary Hilary Otsu said the coalition was still working towards Tinubu’s re-election, adding that its activities would not undermine the chances of PDP candidates in other elections.
“Edo State voters are very discerning. So, our message in Edo is very clear: Vote for BAT in the presidential ballot. For Senate, Reps and Assembly, vote for PDP only,” he said.
In Rivers State, Wike on Sunday led a delegation of political leaders loyal to him, including members of the State House of Assembly and the 23 local government council chairmen, to meet Governor Siminalayi Fubara at his residence in Port Harcourt.
The delegation included the Speaker of the House of Assembly, Martin Amaewhule. The meeting, held less than two weeks after an earlier engagement, was said to be part of ongoing reconciliation efforts between the two political camps.
In Benue State, the coalition’s National Secretary, Austin Agada, said the group would support Tinubu’s re-election but would not back Governor Hyacinth Alia’s second-term ambition unless he demonstrated commitment to the coalition and its interests.
Agada’s position came amid allegations by the Benue Alliance for Good Governance and Accountability (BAGA) that a proposed political arrangement involving Wike, Secretary to the Government of the Federation George Akume and former governor Samuel Ortom was intended to influence the 2027 governorship election.
BAGA alleged that the arrangement was designed to favour former Attorney-General of the Federation, Chief Mike Aondoakaa, as Alia’s successor. The group opposed attempts by political leaders outside the state to determine the next governor.
“Benue is not Rivers, and we will not allow Wike from Rivers State to choose a governor for us in Benue State,” the group said.
In Nasarawa State, PDP governorship candidate Emmanuel David Ombugadu said candidates of the Wike-backed faction had secured their tickets ahead of the 2027 elections.
Ombugadu indicated that the state chapter would vote for a presidential candidate in line with Wike’s directive, a position that has generated reactions among party stakeholders and political observers.
Other candidates associated with the arrangement include former Director-General of the National Orientation Agency, Mike Omeri, who is contesting the Nasarawa South senatorial seat against APC candidate Abubakar Hassan Nalaraba.
In Ondo State, the coalition has also raised questions about the APC’s ability to retain the support of influential politicians who failed to secure its tickets.
Among those associated with the arrangement are Matthew Oyerinmade, popularly known as MATO, the PDP candidate for Ondo South Senatorial District, and Idowu Mafimisebi, a former APC chieftain contesting the Ilaje/Ese-Odo Federal Constituency seat on the PDP platform.
Oyerinmade said his support for Tinubu predated his departure from the APC, adding that the coalition provided an opportunity to pursue his legislative ambition while backing the President.
An aide to Mafimisebi, Kayode Bidemi, said the campaign was mobilising supporters despite the APC’s influence in the state.
“We have been in the APC, and we were not given a chance to contest. We believe our people would vote rightly, not minding a mere logo of APC,” he said.
A political analyst at Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba-Akoko, Lasisi Iwu, said the coalition could pose a challenge to APC candidates if influential political stakeholders withdrew their support from the ruling party and redirected their structures towards candidates associated with Wike’s camp.
The unfolding political realignments are expected to shape negotiations, candidate support and party strategies as political actors position themselves for the 2027 general elections.