It's far too early to know whether Pat Fitzgerald will work out at Michigan State or not.
MSU signed up for a longer process when it hired Fitzgerald, who had been out of college coaching for three seasons and thereby couldn't bring a large group of players or coaches with him. Year 1 for Fitzgerald seems largely to be a wash, with a 2-5 start and a roster that looked pretty flawed from the start.
These seven games have still provided an interesting look into what kind of program Fitzgerald wants to build, though. Some parts have been good, but there are still valid concerns, too. Let's look at three points from either side.
Reasons for Optimism
1. Financial Reinforcements Seem to Be Coming
Money is, for better or worse, a huge part of the discussion around a program these days. The Athletic estimated in September that Michigan State was spending between $21-25 million on its football roster this season. That's not at the bottom of the Big Ten, but it's in the bottom half.
New athletic director Dan Bartholomae seems confident that MSU's position among its peers will improve soon. He wrote in an Oct. 7 letter that "football must be resourced to be competitive immediately, and they will be."
It'll take a serious improvement on that front for the Spartans' roster to be tangibly better next season, though. The price for an average Big Ten team seems to go up by about $5 million every year, and the Spartans will have to overpay for any difference-maker they want, with 2026 almost certainly set to be the program's fifth consecutive losing season.
2. Internal Buy-In Seems There
Fitzgerald has also talked about building his program upon "bedrock." Part of that bedrock is getting players to buy into Fitzgerald's own vision. That includes clean play and not beating themselves. MSU has the seventh-fewest penalty yards per game this season at just 36.3 per contest.
The coaching decisions haven't been 100% perfect, but the last two close losses have a lot to do with execution issues. Michigan State's defense has missed 31 tackles in those games, according to PFF, and there were four potential deep-shot touchdowns that the Spartans and Alessio Milivojevic couldn't connect on against Northwestern. The buy-in has been there; MSU may just need some roster upgrades this season to get over the hump.
3. Offseason Offers Additional Blank Slate
Fitzgerald said Michigan State will be a "completely different team" next season following the loss to Notre Dame. Some of that could be a reference to the build from one year to the next, but MSU will also, semi-literally, be a completely different team next season. Twelve of the team's starters on a fully healthy team will be out of eligibility following this season, 13 if running back Cam Edwards is included. There are 23 players who are definitely out of eligibility on this year's roster.
Having that many outgoing players may not be the worst thing when discussing the worst MSU team in a generation. Fitzgerald will still have to seek out players who are better in the portal, but it's a good thing that so many jobs and spots will be up for grabs next year.
Reasons for Pessimism
1. Year 1 is Still Going Poorly
"You are what your record says you are" is a phrase much more appropriate for the NFL than college, but MSU is still only 2-5. The Spartans may be two plays away from 4-3 and a very different narrative, but this is still a results-based sport and society.
There is an understanding that this was never going to be "the year," but Michigan State is desperate for a victory to feel good about. Toledo and EMU aren't going to cut it. Illinois and Northwestern were two golden chances at victories MSU could've clung to, with a 17-point comeback against the Illini and with NU being Fitzgerald's former team. There's still time to go get a big win, but the opportunities dwindle by the week.
2. Underwhelming 2027 Class
Fitzgerald's first full recruiting class at Michigan State doesn't seem like one that will excite a ton of people. The Spartans' 2027 class is currently ranked 63rd in the nation on 247Sports, as well as second-to-last in the Big Ten.
One reason MSU's rank is so low is that the team currently has only 15 commitments, the third-fewest in the conference, but its average commit rating of 86.93 is still just 14th in the Big Ten. Offensive tackle Caleb Johnson and defensive lineman Ohimai Ozolua are the only two incoming four-star prospects.
3. Concerning Decisions in Crunch Time
The Illinois and Northwestern losses aren't entirely on coaching, but Fitzgerald and his staff may have had at least a partial hand in the results. That game against the Illini ultimately came down to one play, and Michigan State dialed up a predictable-looking trick play that had essentially no chance of success from the moment it was snapped.
MSU was also a first -down away from salting away the rest of the clock in regulation against Northwestern and being able to kick a field goal as time expired. Fitzgerald has generally been an aggressive decision-maker in 2026, but Michigan State didn't try to throw for the sticks at all. It wasn't entirely true to the team's identity, and playing it "safe" may have cost MSU that one.
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