While Max Verstappen was still seriously considering the possibility of ending this Formula 1 season without winning a single race at Monza, things now look considerably different.
Verstappen came remarkably close to victory in Baku before actually coming out on top in the subsequent races of the triple-header in Malaysia and Singapore.
It marks a huge contrast with the beginning of this year, when Red Bull was a distant fourth in the pecking order and at times even found itself fighting Haas and Alpine.
Unsurprisingly, that sparked plenty of speculation about Verstappen's future again, although he revealed at Zandvoort that, in reality, he had come much closer to an early F1 retirement than to switching teams.
Ahead of Verstappen's home race, the news finally emerged: the Dutchman's already long-term deal with Red Bull had been renegotiated and extended by another two years.
Now that the Milton Keynes-based squad has made a huge step forward and is fighting for victories again, the question arises whether he might already have known more when he signed.
In other words, did Verstappen already know that Red Bull would become competitive again with its next upgrade package?
“No, not really, it was more just talking about the future, and of course the ideas about how the team is moving forward,” Verstappen replied. “And I liked those ideas. It’s also not that they really needed to convince me or whatever, it's just the general chat that you have with the team.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing
“And for me, it's been really enjoyable to work with this team. Naturally, yes, with the progress that we have had, it's a nice bonus, because fighting up front is a lot more satisfying, of course.”
Verstappen also added that the Baku upgrade is not just about outright performance. Perhaps even more important than the pure gains in load and lap time is the fact that the RB22 has become considerably more predictable again.
And that is precisely what allows the driver behind the wheel to make more of a difference again, at least as far as the limitations of the current power unit regulations allow him to do so.
“The big thing that has changed with our car is that has just become a lot more predictable and balanced, where in the beginning of the year many times I didn't know what was going to happen going into a corner,” Verstappen explained. “Back then, a lot of weird things did happen with the car.
“That's why you could never really run it to the limit, because you didn't know where the limit was, or suddenly the limit had shifted. That [change] has made it a lot better in the last few race weekends, just knowing a bit more where the limit is and having a more predictable balance.”
Team principal Laurent Mekies also dismissed the suggestion that Red Bull had already anticipated the huge progress in Baku and had been able to use it to convince Verstappen to put pen to paper.
“The short answer is no. We were not waiting for a magic upgrade that was supposed to bring us to the performance,” the Frenchman clarified.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Laurent Mekies, Red Bull Racing Team Principal
“We knew that we had upgrades coming and we also knew that Baku would be the last one of this year. It was continuing the trend of the development of the car, and as I said earlier, at the time we actually felt that we would probably struggle to close those final three tenths.
“So it was certainly not an argument of convincing [Max] at the time of the discussions.”
Mekies stressed that Verstappen's contract extension was instead based on the longer term and on his confidence that Red Bull can continue to provide him with competitive machinery in the future.
In that respect, the Baku upgrade was not so much used to convince him, but is seen internally more as an example of what is possible when all the pieces of the puzzle fall into place.
“I think more globally, we knew that the dynamic was very strong in Pierre [Wache]'s team and in Ben [Hodgkinson]'s team, in terms of what we felt was still the potential of the car package, both on the chassis side and on the PU side,” Mekies continued.
“And yes, this is the sort of discussion we had with Max. It’s not about the Baku package or any other package, but about the underlying factors and where we felt the long-term opportunities were. But no, nothing specifically about the Baku package.”
As for those long-term opportunities, both Mekies and Verstappen continue to stress that the current situation is still not good enough. Red Bull is not there yet and still needs to address several underlying weaknesses.
With the current chassis and the limitations of the budget cap, that will no longer be possible in 2026, which is why Verstappen has repeatedly emphasised that further changes will be needed for the 2027 car if Red Bull is to compete consistently at the front again.
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