BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 23 October, 10:12 a.m. ET · Source: Poder360, O Tempo, CNN Brasil
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Thursday 22 October, Lula’s campaign asked Justice André Mendonça to reverse his refusal to oversee a swap of bank, tax and phone records.
- The ruling Mendonça said the electoral court need not referee, and that candidates may publish their own records without a judge’s approval.
- The dispute Lula’s side wants the court to collect the data from banks and phone firms and release it all at once.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (23 October, 10:06 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 24% and 24%), as of 23 October, 10:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Whether both candidates’ records will be released together before the vote.
Brazil’s presidential campaign hit a new fight on Thursday 22 October over a promise to open the candidates’ bank, tax and phone records. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign asked Justice André Mendonça of the electoral court (TSE) to reverse his refusal to supervise the exchange, O Tempo reported.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
38 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Mendonça had ruled earlier that day that candidates may publish their own data without a judge’s approval. The Brazil election 2026 runoff is on Sunday 25 October, when Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro.
What Lula’s Campaign Asked the Court
Campaign coordinators Edinho Silva and Camilo Santana submitted the request on Thursday evening, O Tempo reported at 9:28 p.m. Brasília time (8:28 p.m. ET). Both are senior figures in Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT).
The petition asks the TSE, not the campaigns, to request the data from the Central Bank, banks, the tax authority and phone operators. The court would then publish everything at once on its DivulgaCand candidate-data system, Poder360 reported.
Without the court as mediator, the PT argues, nothing guarantees that both candidates’ data come out together, Brasil de Fato reported. Lula’s campaign says it handed the court its documents and authorizations on Thursday evening, ahead of the 11:59 p.m. deadline (10:59 p.m. ET).
The authorizations cover Lula’s relatives, close aides and the Instituto Lula, Poder360 reported. The campaign has asked Mendonça to require Flávio Bolsonaro to do the same.
What Justice Mendonça Decided
Mendonça, the TSE’s vice-president and a Supreme Court (STF) justice, ruled on Thursday evening that the electoral court should not referee the swap.
“It is not for electoral justice to define what each candidate wants or does not want to disclose,” he wrote, according to Brasil de Fato. “What one wants to disclose is each person’s choice, and judging that choice is up to the voter.”
He said secrecy exists to protect the data’s owner, who may give it up at will, so no court order is needed. The candidates and the people and companies named in the case may publish their own data “as and when they see fit,” O Tempo reported.
Mendonça added that voluntary disclosure does not replace formal investigations, CNN Brasil reported. Those, he noted, run through competent authorities under judicial control.
How the Records Deal Came About
Lula proposed opening the records during the Band television debate on Sunday 18 October. His defence filed a request with the TSE on Tuesday 20 October, and Mendonça was drawn as the case’s reporting judge.
On Thursday, the two campaigns signed a joint document promising full and simultaneous disclosure, Brasil de Fato and Brasil 247 reported. Flávio’s side named Deltan Dallagnol, a former prosecutor in the Car Wash corruption investigation, to check that Lula’s documents are complete, according to Brasil de Fato.
Flávio’s campaign sent its own authorizations to the court on Friday, and challenged Lula to open his government credit-card records, Metrópoles reported. The two sides still disagree on whether the other has delivered everything promised.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, and its next president will set its stance on trade and investment. Court fights in the final days can move Brazilian shares, bonds and the real, including US-listed Brazilian stocks.
The dispute does not change the vote itself. It leaves open whether voters will see both candidates’ records before Sunday. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every survey.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (23 October, 10:06 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$192.5 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys. Our Brazil election odds page tracks Polymarket and Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.7% · Lula 23.5% (US$193 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 24%
As of 23 October, 10:20 am ET (15:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Mendonça will reconsider, or whether the TSE’s full bench will take up the request before Sunday. We found no direct response from Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign to the ruling itself at the time of writing.
It is also unclear whether either side will publish its records before the vote, or what they would show. This report covers the legal dispute only, not any claim about either candidate’s finances.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Justice Mendonça decide about the candidates’ records?
He ruled that the electoral court will not referee the disclosure. Candidates may publish their own bank, tax and phone data without court approval.
What is Lula’s campaign asking the court to do?
It wants the TSE to request the data from banks, phone operators and authorities, and release it all at once. It also wants Flávio Bolsonaro required to do the same.
Who is André Mendonça?
He is vice-president of Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) and a justice of the Supreme Court. He is the reporting judge on the records case.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The runoff is between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Sources: Poder360, 22 October 2026; O Tempo, 22 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 22 October 2026; Brasil 247, 22 October 2026; Brasil de Fato, 23 October 2026; Metrópoles, 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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