The Oregon Ducks (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten) and Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) will square up in a pivotal conference showdown on Saturday in Eugene. One of them will leave Autzen Stadium with what could be a damaging second conference loss of the season.
Oregon is coming off a 17-15 upset defeat at the hands of then-No. 21 UCLA in which coach Dan Lanning’s Ducks squad turned the ball over seven times and was successful just once on 13 third-down conversions.
With quarterback Dante Moore still out with a concussion, Oregon turns to a tandem of quarterbacks in Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas.
Nebraska had then-No. 7 Indiana on the ropes last week, only to watch as Hoosiers wide receiver Nick Marsh victimized them for two long touchdowns and a late 20-17 win over the Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium.
Uncertainty Under Center
If going up against the nation’s No. 16 defense wasn’t a tall-enough task, Oregon must do so without Moore, who remains out while recovering from the injury suffered in Week 4 against USC.
Raiola impressed in relief of Moore, guiding the Ducks past the Trojans, only to struggle mightily in his first start with Oregon, throwing for just 43 yards (6-of-19) and two interceptions. Thomas replaced the wildly inefficient Raiola in the fourth quarter and accounted for 156 of the team’s 272 total yards on the day.
If Raiola gets the starting nod under center, he’ll be facing his former team in Nebraska, where he passed for 4,819 yards and 31 touchdowns.
Whoever starts for Lanning’s squad will stare across the line at a Huskers’ defense that has simply been dominant. Nebraska is allowing just 15.2 points and 276.2 yards per game with the nation’s best third-down defense (19.7 percent), ahead of No. 2 Oregon (22.1 percent).
The Ducks must support Raiola or Thomas with an established run game, something that’s been lacking in Oregon's offense, which has yet to produce a 100-yard rushing performance from either running backs Jordon Davison or Dierre Hill Jr. They’ll have to do so against a Nebraska rush defense that ranks No. 17 in the country versus the run at 94.7 yards per game.
Containing Quarterback Anthony Colandrea
The Oregon defense excels on third down and ranks sixth nationally with eight interceptions. Yet the Ducks remain vulnerable against the pass (226.0 yards per game) and rank just No. 41 nationally against the run (118.4 yards per game).
That could leave them exposed versus Nebraska quarterback Anthony Colandrea, who has already racked up 1,405 passing yards, 296 yards on the ground and 16 total touchdowns.
Oregon has experienced mixed results defending against mobile quarterbacks.
The Ducks limited UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava to one net rushing yard before he exited at halftime with an expected season-ending knee injury, while surrendering 326 passing yards to quarterback Jayden Maiava in their win over USC.
The Oregon defensive front is coming off arguably its best performance of the season, registering seven tackles for loss, two sacks and a forced fumble against the Bruins. The Ducks also picked off Iamaleava twice and broke up three of his passes.
For all his scrambling ability, Colandrea has been sacked seven times in Nebraska’s last two games, including five versus Indiana. The Ducks, conversely, have recorded 10 sacks this year, with outside linebacker Matayo Uiagalelei accounting for half.
The key for Oregon will be to keep Colandrea running for his life, rather than big yardage.
Prediction and Betting Odds
Oregon enters the contest favored at home despite the uncertainty swirling around its quarterback position, with Lanning yet to publicly name a starter as of Wednesday night.
BetMGM lists the Ducks as 6.5-point favorites with an over/under of 51.5, with FanDuel also favoring the Ducks by 6.5 points and DraftKings at 7.0
Colandrea remains an X-factor that cannot be discounted, however, as Oregon looks to avoid consecutive home losses for the first time since 2016, former coach Mark Helfrich’s final season and the last year that Nebraska defeated the Ducks.
Prediction: Oregon finds just enough stability at quarterback, while its defense creates havoc for Colandrea, allowing Oregon to eke out a critical 27-24 victory.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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