The 1958 classic horror film The Blob scored mixed reviews on its release, with critics lamenting the poor acting and weak dialogue. Posters for the movie warned that the alien blob “devours everything in its path” and “nothing can stop it” – which is why, half a century later, Michael Gove resurrected and popularised the term “blob” for the sprawling web of teaching unions, local councils and progressive experts who opposed his education reforms in 2010.
Gove may have won that battle (a victory now at risk thanks to our current education secretary) but the blob lives on in so many parts of our national life. People who have spent their careers in the private sector will recognise some of its traits: the elevation of process over outcomes and the state of inertia that comes from a lack of leadership or hostility to innovation.
But it is the public sector – the state – that most people associate with the blob-like dynamics of an entity that, as the posters said, simply cannot be stopped. The IMF revealed yesterday that the size of the British state is growing by a larger amount than any other G7 nation bar Germany, where the expansion is accounted for by a gargantuan defence investment drive. In the UK, government spending will rise by 5.2 percentage points between 2019 and 2031.
A bigger state on almost every measure
To put it another way, public expenditure will rise from 38.1 per cent of GDP before the pandemic to 43.3 per cent by 2030. In 2025, tax revenue as a share of GDP was 38.2 per cent but to fund the blob (sorry, our vital public services) it will hit 41.9 per cent by 2031.
Before the end of this year we’ll hear from Andy Burnham about his ten year plan. He teased us with it in his party conference speech, painting a vision of Britain by 2040 if he’s returned as Prime Minister. It’s a world in which the state has expanded its control into more and more areas of life. You know the shtick by now: water, housing, transport, energy, care, all overseen by beefed-up local government. In other words, a bigger state on almost every measure. Remember, “it devours everything in its path…nothing can stop it.”
Am I stretching the horror film metaphor? I don’t think so. We cannot afford the size of the state we have today let alone one built to deliver Burnham’s plans.