Louisville heads to the JMA Wireless Dome (formerly the Carrier Dome) in Syracuse, NY this weekend for a conference matchup with the Orange. It is the first trip to upstate New York for the Cards since Syracuse throttled them 31-7 in the 2022 season opener.
The Cards enter the matchup 3-3, with three losses by three points a piece (Ole Miss, Wake Forest and NC State). The Orange enter with a 2-3 record, having notched wins over Connecticut and New Hampshire. They lost two games by three points (Virginia, Syracuse) and by 14 at Pitt.
A big storyline for Syracuse is the quarterback position. Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli started the season behind center but got hurt against Pitt in Week 3. In Week Two, Angeli went 24-for-50 through the air for 307 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Amari Odom took over against Pitt, going 8-for-8 and following up that performance with a five-touchdown day through the air against Connecticut. Odom is listed as “out” on this week’s injury report.
Insert Malachi Nelson. According to reports, former five-star prospect Nelson will get the nod Saturday night against Louisville. The 6’3 signal caller has made multiple stops on his college journey (USC, Boise State, UTEP, Syracuse). At UTEP, Nelson started five games compiling 1,163 yards with a 54.7% completion rate. He threw eight touchdowns and nine interceptions. He started last week in Charlottesville and went 16-for-31 with 217 yards and a touchdown.
Nelson is not much of a threat on the ground and has widely been considered a bust but had the Orange in the game down the stretch last weekend.
Louisville opened as a 10.5-point favorite according to DraftKings, but that line rose as high as 15.5 with the quarterback situation being in limbo. It is currently at 14.5 points even though the Cuse have kept every game within two scores.
The Syracuse offense is averaging 447.2 yards per game (37th in FBS), with 281 coming through the air and 165 coming on the ground. They average 32.8 points per game. The leading rusher for the Orange is Tylik Hill. He’s a 5’9 back that has 69 carries for 405 yards and a touchdown on the season. He had 100+ yard days in the last two games against Connecticut and Virginia. Freshman Shavane Anderson leads the Orange running backs with three touchdowns on the ground.
Umari Hatcher is a 6’3 senior receiver that is a viable target for Malachi Nelson. He is top 20 in the country in receptions (37), receiving yards (560) and touchdowns (6). In the last two games, he has 20 receptions for 278 yards and four touchdowns. Louisville has struggled to cover the top targets for opposing teams this season, so the game plan should be focused on stopping Hatcher.
On the defensive side of the ball the Orange are giving up 312.6 yards per game, allowing 168 through the air and 144 on the ground. Opponents are putting up 24 points per game on the Orange.
The leading tackler for the Orange is Chris D’appolonia. The junior safety has thirty tackles on the season. The Orange gave
Both teams have a problem with committing penalties. Louisville ranks 126th in the FBS averaging 74.5 penalty yards per game, and Syracuse ranks 138th (last) with a 100-yard average. The Cards have cut their average penalty yards per game down from 94 to 74 over the last two contests.
Syracuse is not a great offensive team, but the wrinkle of Nelson in the mix is intriguing. Even though Louisville has had its struggles defensively, they should be able to contain the Orange offense. Syracuse has not seen a quarterback like Lincoln Kienholz yet. Kienholz in the dome not facing the elements of cold and dreary Syracuse should shine. Louisville running back Isaac Brown exploded on the scene last week for a 235 yard rushing day.
I expect the Cards offense to roll on the ACC Network tomorrow night and have the final score at 42-21.
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