For most of the week, we didn't know whether the Panthers would face Baker Mayfield or rookie Jalon Daniels on Sunday. It looks like it's going to be Mayfield.
Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles said Friday that Mayfield looks ready to go after missing the last three games with a thumb injury. He's still officially listed as questionable, but after practicing all week, it would be a surprise if he's not out there Sunday.
Does that make the game a little tougher for Carolina? Sure. Does it change how I feel about the Panthers' chances of winning? Not really.
Carolina should be past worrying about who starts at quarterback
Obviously, I'd rather face Daniels. He's a rookie with three NFL starts, while Mayfield has been around long enough that Carolina probably isn't going to show him much he hasn't seen before.
There's also plenty of familiarity here. Dave Canales spent a season with Mayfield in Tampa Bay, and the Panthers know exactly what kind of quarterback they're getting. He's tough, he'll move around when a play breaks down and he's not going to be bothered by coming into Charlotte for a division game.
But I'm not going to spend much time worrying about Mayfield playing. The Panthers are 3-2, they've won three of their last four and they're at home against a 1-5 Tampa Bay team. If we're going to start talking about Carolina as a possible playoff team, this is the kind of game it needs to win no matter who's playing quarterback for the other team.
I'm not expecting Carolina to roll Tampa Bay. These division games have a funny way of getting weird, and we've watched enough Panthers football over the years to know how quickly a game that looks good on paper can turn into a four-quarter headache.
I just don't think Mayfield being out there changes what we should expect from Carolina.
Mayfield coming back doesn't fix everything for Tampa Bay
Mayfield may be back, but Tampa Bay isn't suddenly getting everybody else back with him. He hasn't played since Week 3, the injury is to the thumb on his throwing hand and he'll be wearing a protective glove Sunday.
Maybe he comes out and looks completely normal. I wouldn't be surprised if he does. But three weeks without playing is three weeks without playing, and now his first game back comes on the road against a Panthers defense that's been playing much better.
He'll also be without Emeka Egbuka and starting tackle Luke Goedeke. Antoine Winfield Jr. is out on the other side of the ball, which doesn't hurt Carolina's chances considering what Bryce Young and this offense have been doing lately.
Carolina held Philadelphia to 222 total yards and only 35 on the ground last week. That's two straight games holding an opponent under 50 rushing yards after the run defense looked like one of the biggest problems on the team earlier in the season. Even with 149 penalty yards, the Panthers found a way to win the kind of game they've usually found a way to lose.
Mayfield is a better test for this defense than Daniels would've been. That's fine. If the improvement we've watched the last couple of weeks is real, this is another chance to show it.
We'll learn a little more about the Panthers Sunday
We've seen Carolina play down to teams it should beat plenty of times. That's part of the reason I'm still not completely ready to buy everything we've seen over the last month.
I'm getting closer, though.
The Panthers have won three of four, Young is playing some of the best football of his career, Coker is back and the defense has looked much better the last couple of weeks. At some point, you have to stop going into every game wondering what might go wrong and see if this team can handle being the one that's supposed to win.
That's really what I want to see from Carolina against Tampa Bay besides just getting another win. Would I have rather seen Daniels? Absolutely. I'm not going to pretend otherwise. Mayfield gives Tampa Bay a better chance to win, and I'd imagine Panthers fans would've been perfectly happy watching the rookie make another start.
But Mayfield playing doesn't give Carolina an excuse if things don't go well. The Panthers are at home, they're playing better football and they're facing a 1-5 team that's missing some important pieces.
If Carolina really is the better team right now, this is another chance to prove it.
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