Latin America · What’s On
Key Facts
- —The vote Brazil’s presidential runoff is today, Sunday 25 October, and Rio de Janeiro state also elects its governor. Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. US Eastern).
- —The data Chile’s central bank decides on Tuesday 27 October, Mexico reports third-quarter GDP on Friday 30, and Colombia’s central bank meets the same day.
- —The clocks Europe went back to winter time today, so Lisbon is now three hours ahead of Rio. US clocks change on Sunday 1 November.
- —On the track Formula 1 is at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City on 30 October–1 November, with the race on Sunday 1 November.
- —On stage BTS plays three nights at the MorumBIS stadium in São Paulo on 28, 30 and 31 October. Mexico City’s Day of the Dead parade is on Saturday 31 October.
- —Prediction markets On Sunday 25 October, 4 a.m. US Eastern, Polymarket priced a Flávio Bolsonaro win in the runoff at 80.0% and Lula at 19.5%. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, priced them at 81.0% and 20.0%.
Your Latin America week ahead for 26 October–1 November 2026 opens with the result of Brazil’s presidential runoff and ends with Formula 1 in Mexico City and the Day of the Dead. In between come central bank decisions in Chile and Colombia, three BTS concerts in São Paulo and a long run of public holidays.
This guide was written on Sunday 25 October, before the polls closed. Every date is checked against an official calendar, a venue or a ticketing page, and local-currency amounts carry an approximate US$ value at US$1 = R$5.00 (RT market data, 25 October).
Politics you will feel on the street
Brazil votes in the presidential runoff today, Sunday 25 October. Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), faces Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), according to the electoral court (TSE).
Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time across the country. Results come from the TSE after the polls close, so check its site rather than this guide for the outcome.
In Rio de Janeiro state, voters also choose a governor in a runoff between Eduardo Paes and Douglas Ruas, according to Brazilian press reports. For US readers, the main exposure is the real (BRL), which stood at about R$5.00 per US$ on Sunday (RT market data), and Brazilian markets open on Monday 26 October with the result priced in.
What Prediction Markets Say
Brazil runoff. On Sunday 25 October, 4 a.m. US Eastern, Polymarket priced a Flávio Bolsonaro win at 80.0% and a Lula win at 19.5%, with about US$197 million traded on the market. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, priced them at 81.0% and 20.0%.
Chile rate decision. Polymarket priced “no change” at the central bank’s October meeting at 98.2%, with about US$14,600 traded. A 25-basis-point cut stood at 0.9% and a 25-basis-point rise at 1.4%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Deadlines and money
Chile holds its central bank rate decision on Tuesday 27 October, according to the RT economic calendar. The previous rate was 4.5%, and the market prices no change.
Brazil starts the week with FGV consumer confidence on Monday 26 October, with consensus at 83.7 against 84.2 before. It also reports the current account for September that day, with consensus at −US$4.5 billion against −US$5.06 billion before, according to the RT economic calendar.
Brazil then publishes the IGP-M wholesale inflation index for October on Thursday 29 October, with consensus at 1.7% against 1.57% before. Net formal job creation (the Caged report) is due the same day, with consensus at 100,000 against 165,830 before, according to the RT economic calendar.
Brazil closes the week on Friday 30 October with the unemployment rate for the quarter, where consensus is 5.5% against 5.3% before, and the government budget balance, where consensus is a deficit of R$100 billion (about US$20 billion) against R$116 billion before (RT economic calendar).
Mexico reports its third-quarter GDP estimate on Friday 30 October, according to the statistics office INEGI. the RT economic calendar lists consensus at 1.7%, but does not say whether that is a quarterly or a yearly change.
Colombia holds its central bank meeting on Friday 30 October, with the policy rate at 12.25% before the decision, according to the RT economic calendar. The same day brings Colombia’s September unemployment rate, with consensus at 9.2% against 9.4% before.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday 28 October, which sets the tone for Latin American currencies. Brazil’s Copom meets next on 3–4 November, according to the central bank’s calendar.
Culture and events this week
BTS plays three nights at the MorumBIS stadium in São Paulo, on Wednesday 28, Friday 30 and Saturday 31 October. Gates open at 4 p.m. and the show starts at 8 p.m. Brasília time, and tickets started at R$680 (about US$136).
Iron Maiden plays a second São Paulo night at Nubank Parque on Tuesday 27 October, after tonight’s show. Alter Bridge opens at 7:10 p.m. on the tour’s São Paulo dates, according to ticketing reports.
Mexico City opens its Day of the Dead Megaofrenda (a monumental altar) in the Zócalo on 29 October, with a 32-metre Catrina figure, and it stays up into the first days of November. The city’s Day of the Dead parade is on Saturday 31 October at 2 p.m., according to Mexican press reports.
Formula 1 runs the Mexico City Grand Prix at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez from Friday 30 October to Sunday 1 November. The race is 71 laps, and first practice is on Friday 30 at 12:30 p.m. Mexico City time.
Rio de Janeiro has Matteo Bocelli at Vivo Rio on Thursday 29 October. Our daily Nightlife Tonight guides for Rio and São Paulo list the nightly shows.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Brazil runoff and when do polls close?
The runoff is today, Sunday 25 October 2026. Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time, and the TSE publishes the results after that.
When does Chile decide its interest rate?
On Tuesday 27 October 2026, according to the RT economic calendar. The previous rate was 4.5%, and Polymarket priced no change at 98.2%.
When are the BTS concerts in São Paulo?
On Wednesday 28, Friday 30 and Saturday 31 October 2026 at the MorumBIS stadium. Gates open at 4 p.m. and the show starts at 8 p.m. Brasília time.
When is the Mexico City Formula 1 race?
The race is on Sunday 1 November 2026 at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, after practice on Friday 30 October.
Do the clocks change this week?
Europe changed on Sunday 25 October, so Lisbon is now three hours ahead of Rio. Brazil has no daylight saving time, and US clocks change on Sunday 1 November.
Connected Coverage
Sources: TSE and Brazilian press reports on the runoff; Banco Central do Brasil (Copom calendar) and Banco de la República release calendars; RT economic calendar for consensus and previous values and for exchange rates; Polymarket and Kalshi for prediction-market prices (25 October 2026, 4 a.m. US Eastern); Formula 1 and Mexican press on the Mexico City Grand Prix; Rolling Stone Brasil and Ticketmaster reports on the BTS shows; Mexican press on the Day of the Dead; the Colombian foreign ministry on the visa deadline. Local-currency figures carry approximate US$ conversions at the rates cited; prices and availability move.