Russian Forces Fail to Make Net Gains in 2026, Suffer Over 40,000 Monthly Casualties Since July, According to ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a comprehensive report on Thursday, revealing that a Russian military victory over Ukraine is far from certain. The report highlights that Moscow's forces have achieved virtually no net territorial gains in 2026, while suffering more than 40,000 casualties each month since July.

The human cost for Russia is staggering compared to its achievements. According to ISW, every square kilometer of lost territory has cost the Russian military roughly 458 casualties. Since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, cumulative losses, including dead, wounded, and missing, have exceeded 1.56 million, which is more than 1% of Russia's total population.

The ISW's findings starkly contrast with the Kremlin's claims. Russian officials assert that they have captured about 6,500 square kilometers since January 2026, while ISW estimates the actual net gain at a mere 73 square kilometers.

Since September, the situation has worsened for Moscow, with Russia reportedly losing a net 240 square kilometers, despite their commanders claiming to have seized more than 1,800.

ISW reports that the Russian advancement in 2026 is progressing at a rate of approximately 0.25 square kilometers per day. At this pace, it would take Putin's forces 60 years to fully capture the rest of the Donetsk oblast, projecting to June 2086.

In contrast, Ukraine has taken the offensive in key sectors along the front. The Vivaldi Operation has liberated nearly 277 square kilometers and 16 towns north and northeast of Lyman, thwarting Russia's plans to encircle the so-called Ukrainian Fortress Belt.

In the south, a counteroffensive toward Oleksandrivka reclaimed over 627 square kilometers, significantly pushing Russian forces out of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast between late January and mid-August, liberating 26 towns.

In Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops cleared the city of Kupyansk, contradicting Putin's claims of capturing it.

A pivotal factor in Ukraine's resistance is the unprecedented technological leap in its military capabilities. Ukrainian drones, capable of reaching distances of 100 to 200 kilometers, strike Russian troop concentrations before they reach the frontline, creating a "death zone" of 20 to 40 kilometers deep, saturated with surveillance and attack systems.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense acquired 25,000 ground robotic systems in the first half of 2026, doubling the number purchased throughout 2025.

Simultaneously, a long-range attack campaign on Russian energy infrastructure has targeted 22 refineries between January and June 2026, reducing Russian crude processing to its lowest levels in over two decades, resulting in widespread fuel shortages across nearly all Russian regions.

ISW notes that these attacks "have caused gasoline and diesel shortages throughout the Russian Federation, creating constant societal irritation," complicating Putin's decision to order a new mass mobilization, which he fears could trigger social unrest.

Nonetheless, recent diplomatic developments have increased pressure on Kyiv. The Trump administration has urged Zelensky to negotiate, even stating that "it's time for Ukraine to have a new president," while authorizing Russian diesel exports with certain sanction suspensions. Zelensky responded by proposing elections contingent on a 60-day ceasefire, an offer that the Kremlin swiftly rejected.

ISW concludes that only Putin opposes a settlement: "The task for Ukraine and its partners is to keep increasing pressure on the Kremlin and raise the cost of Putin's overreaching ambitions to the point where he is convinced to accept a peace not dictated by him."