Why the China is cancelling this Taiwanese TV star

In late January 1949 the Australian warship HMAS Warramunga was heading towards China's east coast amid the Chinese Civil War when it received an SOS signal sent from a nearby ship, the Taiping, after a collision with a cargo ship, the Chienyuan.

It took the Australian vessel a few hours to arrive where it found only 34 survivors.

Fishermen in nearby waters also rescued about a dozen passengers and reportedly found jewellery and ancestral tablets belonging to more than 1,000 passengers.

Some of them were upper-class Chinese and officials from the Chinese Nationalist Party, Kuomintang (KMT), fleeing the Communists to Taiwan.

The SS Taiping, later dubbed the "Oriental Titanic", was operated by a company partially owned by the family of Taiwanese mega-celebrity Kevin Tsai.

His father had fled from Shanghai to Taipei after the incident, with other members of the KMT.

The story of the SS Taiping and Tsai's family has made headlines again after 77 years as he faced a backlash in China last week.

The younger Tsai is a Taipei-born writer whose books have reportedly sold many millions of copies in mainland China. He has built a career spanning television, literature and cinema across Chinese-speaking regions.

He is being targeted by Beijing's censorship machine after being filmed at a campaign event for Puma Shen, a local candidate for the Taipei city mayoral election on behalf of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). 

Shen has been sanctioned by Beijing and labelled as a separatist.

Tsai has 36 million followers on China's social media platform Weibo. His commercials were withdrawn from Chinese networks, and some clips from his TV shows have disappeared.

Although Tsai mentioned that he would also attend KMT campaign events, Chinese state media still warned him that "reaping profits in the mainland while flirting with the pro-independence camp" in Taiwan would come with "a price they can ill afford".

Shock waves went through the Chinese-speaking world as it was widely believed that a celebrity like him, who had deep connections to the mainland, could be safe attending a local campaign.

It again reflects China's intense repression and pressure on Taiwan's internal politics as another round of the island's local elections draws closer.

A political indicator

Local elections in Taiwan happen every four years, with voters weighing local issues such as transport, urban development and public services.

The mayoral election in the city of Taipei, where Tsai is a voter, is closely watched by Beijing as an indicator of political sentiment ahead of the presidential election in two years.

This year the competition is even more heated. This is not just because former Taipei mayors Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou have gone on to become presidents, but also because the candidates from the two major parties are representatives of increasingly polarised political camps.

The DPP's Puma Shen was once seen as a prominent voice in Taiwan's pro-independence movement. He was sanctioned by Beijing for his activism opposing China's influence and his support for civil defence training.

His rival Chiang Wan-an, from the KMT, is the current Taipei mayor and a political elite who represents voters who favour economic engagement with Beijing.

Chiang's great-grandfather was Chiang Kai-shek, the former leader of the Republic of China and the KMT whose followers, like the passengers on the SS Taiping, retreated to the island during the civil war.

If Chiang can secure another term in the city of Taipei he could emerge as one of the leading contenders for the KMT's next presidential nomination.

His success could strengthen the KMT's momentum in challenging the DPP in the 2028 presidential election, which has been held by the DPP since 2016 under Tsai Ing-wen and now William Lai.

The backlash against Kevin Tsai showed how closely China's political elites are watching the local election, even though he had attended the campaign without publicly declaring his preference.

His influence in the mainland, through his books and TV appearances, has made his political activities a high-stakes risk that Beijing cannot ignore.

It also signalled to the Taiwanese public which election outcome would be preferred by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

China or not China

Political identity continues to be a primary focus for voters, whether they identify as Taiwanese or Chinese, and whether Taiwan should be formally independent.

It is what makes Taiwan's elections unique, as the democracy continues to see the definition of its identity evolve which could potentially trigger a more aggressive reaction from the mainland.

The latest polling result from Taiwan's National Chengchi University shows 63.1 per cent of people on the island identify as Taiwanese, while 30.7 per cent see themselves both Chinese and Taiwanese.

Separately, polling on Taiwan's political future shows growing support for maintaining the status quo indefinitely, which reached 34.4 per cent in June 2026.

Support for maintaining the status quo while moving towards independence has fallen to 21.7 per cent since 2020.

The figures showed a growing preference for preserving the existing relationship between Taiwan and the mainland, rather than a decisive shift towards either independence or unification.

Although the public seems to favour a more moderate approach the major political parties, the KMT and DPP, have taken increasingly polarised positions in their political messaging.

The DPP, which is now in its third consecutive presidential term, supports increased investment in national security including a larger defence budget and measures countering Beijing's alleged interference.

The KMT, whose leader Cheng Li-wun visited the mainland earlier this year, supports stabilising engagement with Beijing while rejecting Beijing's One Country, Two Systems proposal.

Among fragmented public opinion where economic and social issues also carry weight, Beijing has stepped up its propaganda efforts to influence views on the prospect of resuming dialogue across the strait.

Censoring Kevin Tsai is one example.

Another is its continuous investment in social media influencers who promote China's rapid economic development and visible improvements in infrastructure, areas in which Taiwan is seen as lagging behind.

Beijing's efforts also show in how it continuously uses trade to coerce the island, alongside its increasingly visible military activities in the waters around it.

The conflict in 1949 was rooted in the rivalry between the Communists and Nationalists, and the elites aboard the SS Taiping hoped their move to Taiwan would be only temporary.

But cross-strait tensions have since evolved into a rivalry between Beijing and the DPP, reflecting the profound differences between a democratic and an authoritarian system.

Both governments portray their rivals as threats, but Beijing's response to Tsai illustrates how political pressure can extend beyond Taiwan's borders and into the commercial and cultural lives of Taiwanese public figures.

Voters will show what they think about their future, along with many other issues, next month.

It will determine where our region will head next in a future that is gradually becoming predictable in its unpredictability.