Oxford energy institute sees uncertainty over Qatar, UAE LNG before winter

Photo: the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Although oil exports from the Persian Gulf countries had recovered to nearly normal levels by the end of September 2026, a significant resumption of LNG supplies from Qatar and the UAE is not yet expected.

This was stated in the Quarterly Gas Market Review by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).

As noted in the report, the recovery of oil flows has not led to similar expectations regarding LNG supplies: “QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure clause on its contractual obligations to certain customers through November.”

“At the same time, QatarEnergy remains confident in its ability to quickly resume operations at the undamaged LNG production lines at the Ras Laffan complex. However, the absence of a long-term political agreement with Iran, whether between the U.S. and Iran or between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iran, creates uncertainty regarding the safety and reliability of shipments.

This factor is critical for LNG production, as storage capacity for LNG is more limited than for oil, and there are no alternative transportation routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz,” the report states.

The institute notes that, in the absence of diplomatic progress, the prospects for resuming LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf countries before the start of winter remain uncertain.

The report emphasizes that, at the same time, future trends in the gas market will depend on seasonal demand, the volume of LNG shipments from the U.S., European production, and pipeline imports.

OIES also points out that declining demand in Europe and developing Asian countries, against a backdrop of high prices, is already reflected in quarterly gas import data.