BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 17 October, 10:55 a.m. ET · Source: Instituto Veritá
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Saturday 17 October, the polling institute Veritá released a national runoff survey with Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.1% of valid votes and Lula 48.9%, a gap of about 2 points.
- Margin of error 1 percentage point at 95% confidence, on 15,554 interviews with registration BR-01107/2026.
- Fieldwork Interviews ran from Monday 12 to Friday 16 October, so they include the days after the 15 October Datafolha release.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (17 October, 10:30 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 24% and 21%), as of 17 October, 10:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Veritá published valid votes only, and this report found no raw totals, so the share of undecided voters is unknown.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Lula by 51.1% to 48.9% of valid votes in a new poll from Instituto Veritá, released on Saturday 17 October. The survey is the latest in the Brazil election 2026 runoff, which is due on Sunday 25 October.
The Veritá poll adds a fresh data point to our Brazil election polls tracker eight days before the vote. Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, represents the conservative Liberal Party (PL), while Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, represents the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT).
What the Veritá Runoff Poll Found
Veritá interviewed 15,554 voters across all 27 Brazilian states from 12 to 16 October, Jornal Razão reported. The institute set the margin of error at 1 percentage point with 95% confidence.
The institute ran the survey on its own initiative and registered it with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-01107/2026, according to Midiamax. The valid-vote result was 51.1% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 48.9% for Lula.
Valid Votes and Why They Matter
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, which is how Brazil’s electoral court reports the final result. Pollsters publish this split so that their numbers can be compared with election night.
The gap of about 2 points is roughly twice the stated margin of error of 1 point. Other pollsters use different samples and methods, so one survey does not settle the race.
How It Compares With Datafolha
Datafolha, a major pollster linked to the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, published a runoff poll on 15 October with Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, GZH reported. Veritá’s split of 51.1% to 48.9% sits in the same range.
Veritá’s fieldwork ended on Friday 16 October, a day after Datafolha published its poll. Our tracker lists each survey with its dates so that readers can compare them.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a runoff this close can bring price swings until the result is known. Polls from different institutes can point in slightly different directions, so many investors follow several at once.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will shape Brazil’s dealings with Washington for the next four years. A lead of about 2 points is a snapshot of opinion, not a forecast.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (17 October, 10:30 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$185.3 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on new surveys. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 17 October, 10:20 am ET (15:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Veritá’s valid-vote figures were published without raw totals in the reports we reviewed, so the share of undecided, blank and null voters is unknown. We also could not confirm how the institute weighted its sample.
It is not known how voters will react in the final week, or how many will turn out on 25 October. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not predict the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Veritá?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 51.1% of valid votes against 48.9% for Lula, a gap of about 2 points. Instituto Veritá released the poll on Saturday 17 October 2026.
How many voters did Veritá interview?
Veritá says it heard 15,554 voters in all 27 Brazilian states between 12 and 16 October. The stated margin of error is 1 percentage point at a 95% confidence level.
Who paid for the Veritá poll?
Veritá carried out the survey on its own initiative, so no newspaper or party commissioned it. It is registered with the electoral court (TSE) under number BR-01107/2026.
What are valid votes in a Brazilian poll?
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, which match how the electoral court reports results. Veritá published the valid-vote split, and the Midiamax report did not give raw totals.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October 2026, eight days after this poll was released. The winner becomes president of Latin America’s largest country.
Sources: Midiamax, 17 October 2026; Jornal Razão, 17 October 2026; GZH (Grupo RBS), 15 October 2026; Polymarket, 17 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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