CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Democrats have a “big siren warning sign" ahead of Election Day and it is close polling margins in key Senate toss-up races.
Enten said the Senate is "too close to call," as the polling shows many races within the margin of error and Democrats will have to wait until Election Day to see if polling is right, or if Republicans outperform and remain in control.
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. Republicans now hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have slipped as households across America are consistently flagging affordability concerns.
As the president is traversing the nation, stumping for Republicans in key races, he has been handed unfavorable polling including a record low approval for both terms in office in a new Fox News poll.
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What To Know
A handful of senate races are rated as toss-ups by forecasters leading up to Election Day. Sabato’s Crystal Ball lists Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Maine as toss-ups. The Cook Political Report lists Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups.
Polling is neck and neck in nearly all of the races, many falling within the margin of error for a statistical tie.
“The bottom line is this, we have a few weeks to go left in this campaign, the polling has been tight,” Enten said.
“I think we’ve seen this story a little bit before, and that is why this Senate map is still way too close to call, Republicans very much in the ball game,” he added.
Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek: "Democrats have a real path, but Enten is right that it is still too close to call. The toss-ups in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Alaska are all within a few points. Democrats need four net seats, and the polls currently give them enough leads or ties to get there if the numbers hold.
"The catch is the same one Enten noted. Republican candidates have often outperformed the averages by 3 or 4 points in recent cycles. A normal miss in their direction flips several of those races and keeps the Senate Republican. With less than three weeks left, Democrats look better than they did a month ago. The map is not locked in either way."
What Polling Shows
In Kansas, recent polling shows Democrat Adam Hamilton in the lead by a couple of points or in a dead heat with Republican incumbent, Senator Roger Marshall.
An InsiderAdvantage poll shows Hamilton with 47.5 percent of the vote compared to Marshall's 46.7 percent. Libertarian Party candidate David C. Graham landed 3.4 percent of the vote, and 2.4 percent were undecided. The poll was conducted from October 9–10, 2026, among 1,200 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2.83 percent. The results land within the margin of error.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is leading in a majority of recent polls over Republican Ken Paxton.
In an ActiVote poll, Talarico leads with 51.9 percent of the vote compared to Paxton's 48.1 percent. The poll surveyed 400 likely midterm voters from September 30–October 14, 2026, and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent. The results of this poll also fall within the margin of error.
In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, is leading in a majority of polling, or the race is a dead heat versus Republican Senator Jon Husted.
In a Bowling Green State University/Democracy and Public Policy Network Polls/YouGov survey, Husted had 42 percent of the potential vote compared to Brown's 48 percent. Libertarian Bill Redpath landed 3 percent, Independent Greg Levy had 5 percent and 2 percent said someone else.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters in Ohio from September 29–October 9, 2026, and had a margin of error of 4 percent. This result places Brown ahead and outside the margin of error.
Recent polling in Alaska, Maine and Iowa also show single digit leads or even results as Election Day nears.
Meanwhile, Michigan's U.S. Senate race has caught the eye of Trump and is a contest being watched across the nation.
Polling shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers, as Democrats hope to retain the seat.
A Quantus Insights poll shows El-Sayed with 47.6 percent compared to Rogers' 46.5 percent. The survey polled 762 likely voters from October 5–6, 2026, and had a margin of error of 7.8 percent. The poll also notes that 4.2 percent are undecided. These results fall well within the margin of error.
Map Shows Toss-Up Races Ahead of Midterm Elections
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.