BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Tuesday, 20 October, 7:16 p.m. ET · Source: Itamaraty, Brazil’s foreign ministry
Key Facts
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The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. -
What happened On Tuesday 20 October, Brazil’s foreign ministry accused Argentine President Javier Milei of “external interference” in the vote after he hinted that Lula might steal it. -
The charge The ministry called Milei’s latest remarks a “new and unacceptable attempt” to interfere, and said the machines have never recorded irregularities. -
The background Brazil had already withdrawn its ambassador from Buenos Aires, and relations with Argentina remain downgraded with no truce in sight. -
Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition). -
Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 80.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 19.5% (20 October, 7:12 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 80% and Kalshi at 82% (Lula: 20% and 21%), as of 20 October, 7:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls. -
Still open Milei offered no evidence of any plan to steal the vote, and it is unclear whether the dispute will move any voters in the final five days.
Brazil’s foreign ministry, known as Itamaraty, accused Argentine President Javier Milei on Tuesday 20 October 2026 of trying to interfere in the Brazil election 2026 after he suggested that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could steal the runoff. The note came five days before the vote on Sunday 25 October.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.1%, Lula 48.9%
29 national polls from 17 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Milei, Argentina’s president, openly backs Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of Rio de Janeiro, the conservative challenger. The dispute matters to US readers because it pulls a major Latin American ally into the final days of a close race that will steer Brazilian markets and trade with Washington.
What Itamaraty Said About Milei
The ministry called Milei’s latest remarks, aimed at the judiciary and the electronic voting system, a “new and unacceptable attempt at external interference in the Brazilian democratic process”, Estadão reported. It said the Argentine leader was repeating falsehoods spread by those who lost the election and led the failed military coup four years ago.
The note described Milei’s comments as undemocratic, unbalanced and unfit for the head of state of a friendly country, Metrópoles reported. It added that the decision on Brazil’s future belongs only to Brazilians, who will vote freely on 25 October without outside interference.
On the machines, the ministry said Brazil’s electronic voting system is proven secure and has never recorded irregularities. It added that election observers from around the world confirmed this after the first round on 4 October.
What Milei Posted Before the Rebuke
In posts on social media on Tuesday, Milei wrote that he hoped the left’s “last dirty campaign trick” would not include stealing the election, then called Lula a “leftist thief”, Poder360 reported. Itamaraty said his remarks targeted the judiciary and the electronic voting system.
He also called Lula a “progressive macho” over remarks the president made in an SBT News interview, which we covered in our report on the machismo row. He offered no evidence of any plan to steal the vote, and none of the coverage we reviewed reports one.
A Rift That Began in July
Brazil withdrew its ambassador from Buenos Aires and told the Argentine ambassador in Brasília to go home after Milei’s earlier acts in the campaign, Estadão reported. Since then, relations have stayed downgraded with no sign of a truce.
Lula’s campaign has in turn used Milei in its own advertising as an example of economic policy not to follow. Flávio Bolsonaro’s camp has cited the Argentine leader as a model of fiscal adjustment, so the Argentine president is now a character in both campaigns.
What It Means for US Readers
Investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds and US-listed shares of Brazilian companies should expect headlines, not rule changes. The vote count and the result come from Brazil’s electoral court (TSE), and nothing in this exchange alters how Brazil votes. Our Brazil election polls page shows where the race stands.
For US policymakers, the episode shows how far the Brazilian campaign has become a regional contest, with Argentina’s president picking a side. A sharper split between the two largest economies in South America could matter for trade, the Mercosur bloc and cooperation with Washington after the vote.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro an 80.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 19.5% (20 October, 7:12 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$189.7 million in total bets; read more in our Brazil election odds guide.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · Lula 19.5% (US$190 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 82% · Lula 21%
As of 20 October, 7:20 pm ET (00:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We could not open Milei’s original posts, so their wording rests on Estadão, Poder360 and Metrópoles, which agree. It is not known whether Argentina will answer the note, or whether the ambassadors’ status will change before the vote.
No poll has yet measured whether the row changes any votes. Surveys capture opinion on the days of the interviews and do not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Brazil say about Milei on 20 October?
Brazil’s foreign ministry called Milei’s remarks a “new and unacceptable attempt at external interference” in the democratic process. It said the Argentine president repeated falsehoods spread by those who led a failed military coup.
What did Milei say about Lula and the election?
He wrote that he hoped the left’s last dirty campaign trick would not include stealing the election and called Lula a “leftist thief”. He offered no evidence of any plan to steal the vote.
Is Brazil’s electronic voting system secure?
Brazil’s foreign ministry says it has never recorded irregularities and that observers from around the world confirmed this after the first round. The electoral court, the TSE, announces the official result.
Why are Brazil and Argentina at odds?
Milei openly backs Flávio Bolsonaro, and Brazil withdrew its ambassador from Buenos Aires over his earlier acts in the campaign. Relations remain downgraded with no sign of a truce.
When is the Brazil runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October 2026 in the runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The first round was held on Sunday 4 October.
Sources: Estadão, 20 October 2026; Poder360, 20 October 2026; Metrópoles, 20 October 2026; Polymarket, 20 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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