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Denver Public Schools’ enrollment fell by 1,780 students this fall, new data shows. The decline was steeper than district officials were expecting, and Superintendent Alex Marrero implied that more school closures could be coming soon.
Marrero said at a school board meeting Thursday that he anticipates he’ll have to act on a clause in the board’s four-year moratorium on school closures that allows exceptions if there is a “substantial shift” in enrollment, funding, or another emergency.
Marrero didn’t make clear when he might recommend more school closures. The board’s policy calls for closure recommendations to happen no later than November of the preceding school year. Given the tight timeline, a district spokesperson said it’s not possible for the board to vote to close a school this year, though Marrero could enact what he calls “operational shifts.”
This year, DPS cut ninth grade from Robert F. Smith STEAM Academy after fewer than 20 students enrolled in that grade, a district spokesperson said. The high school, which was modeled after historically Black colleges and opened in 2021, was expecting 100 students this year but has only 24 enrolled in grades 10 through 12.
School districts across Colorado are struggling with declining enrollment and the controversial school closures that often follow. DPS, the state’s largest district, has closed or partially closed 13 schools for low enrollment in the past three years. Fifteen Denver charter schools have closed in recent years for the same reason.
The school board enacted a four-year moratorium on school closures last year, which barred any closure votes before 2029. Board members said they wanted to give families, teachers, and communities a chance to heal after the last round of closures.
DPS’ enrollment peaked in 2019 and has been falling since. Last fall, enrollment was down by about 1,200 students. This fall, district officials said they were expecting that number to be 1,400 to 1,500 fewer students. The drop was about 300 students more severe than they anticipated.
Lower birth rates, high housing prices that push families out of the city, and a decline in immigrant students are among the factors driving this year’s decrease, officials said.
The district enrolled just 233 new immigrant students in the first five weeks of this school year, according to district data. That’s compared to more than 1,470 in the fall of 2023, which was the high point of the last five years. DPS is also seeing more departures; data shows that more than 570 immigrant students left in the first month of the school year, resulting in a net loss.
“This net loss of students we’ve experienced two years in a row now, and we’ve seen accelerate over the course of the last 12 to 18 months, is certainly a very plausible reason for why we could be declining faster than we were expecting,” Andrew Huber, the district’s executive director of enrollment and campus planning, told the school board’s finance committee earlier this month.
Elementary and high school enrollment declined the most this fall, district data shows, each dropping by more than 800 students. Middle school enrollment was more steady.
While the drop in elementary school enrollment can be attributed to lower birth rates, Huber said the reason for the high school decline was less clear.
Three comprehensive high schools — Thomas Jefferson, John F. Kennedy, and Abraham Lincoln — missed their enrollment projections by more than 100 students, district data shows.
Other high schools fell short of their projections, too: George Washington High by 72 students, South High by 55 students, Northeast Early College by 47 students, Manual High by 39 students, and West High by 32 students, the data shows.
Schools are funded per student, and schools that miss their enrollment projections must pay the district back for the students that didn’t show up. But Huber said many schools were able to cover the difference using leftover funding from the year before.
Preschool enrollment is also down this fall, driven partly by less demand for half-day classes and for classes taught primarily in Spanish, Huber said.
Like in past years, schools in the southwest part of the city experienced the steepest enrollment declines, with about 820 fewer students, the data shows. Enrollment in the northwest, southeast, and near northeast parts of the city fell by more than 250 students each.
Enrollment also dipped in the far northeast part of the city, which for many years was the only region where student counts were increasing as developers built new single-family housing. A slowdown in that development likely led to this year’s decline, Huber said.
Melanie Asmar is the bureau chief for Chalkbeat Colorado. Contact Melanie at masmar@chalkbeat.org.