Oil&Gas News 16 October 2026 10:46 (UTC +04:00)
Photo: Trend News Agency
BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. The projected volume of state budget revenues from the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG), and Shah Deniz projects over the coming years from 2027 through 2030 has been revealed.
This was reflected in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework prepared by the country's Ministry of Finance for the next four years.
The document presents forecasts for crude oil revenues, one of the main sources of oil revenue for Azerbaijan's state budget, for 2027–2030. State budget oil revenues are projected to amount to 3.58 billion manat ($2.1 billion) in 2027, 3.14 billion manat ($1.8 billion) in 2028, 3.01 billion manat ($1.8 billion) in 2029, and 2.89 billion manat ($1.7 billion) in 2030.
According to the forecast, revenues from SOCAR to the state budget will amount to 1.84 billion manat ($1.1 billion) in 2027. This figure is expected to reach 1.82 billion manat ($1.1 billion) in 2028, 1.83 billion manat ($1.1 billion) in 2029, and 1.85 billion manat ($1.1 billion) in 2030.
Meanwhile, state budget revenues from profit tax under the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) are projected to amount to 320 million manat ($188.2 million) in both 2027 and 2028. This figure is expected to rise to 330 million manat ($194.1 million) in 2029 and 340 million manat ($200 million) in 2030.
Profit tax revenues under the Shah Deniz PSA are projected to decline in the coming years. State budget revenues from this source are expected to amount to 1.42 billion manat ($835.3 million) in 2027, 1 billion manat ($588.2 million) in 2028, 850 million manat ($500 million) in 2029, and 700 million manat ($411.8 million) in 2030.
Thus, the figures presented indicate that revenues from SOCAR are expected to remain relatively stable in 2027–2030, while ACG profit tax revenues are projected to gradually increase. A more pronounced decline is forecast for profit tax revenues under the Shah Deniz project.
Overall, state budget oil revenues are projected to amount to 3.58 billion manat ($2.1 billion) in 2027, before gradually declining to 2.89 billion manat ($1.7 billion) in 2030.
The forecasts in the document are based on an exchange rate of 1.7 manat per $1 and a crude oil price of $65 per barrel.
Meanwhile, state budget revenues over the medium term are projected to amount to 39.254 billion manat ($23.1 billion) in 2027, 39.478 billion manat ($23.2 billion) in 2028, 39.9369 billion manat ($23.5 billion) in 2029, and 40.577 billion manat ($23.9 billion) in 2030.