India’s new climate targets must navigate geopolitical uncertainty [Commentary]

Well past the summer peak, India’s power system remains under strain. The country met daytime demand of over 267 GW even in September, yet fell short by more than 7.7 GW after sunset, when solar generation tapers off. India may have withdrawn its bid to host COP33 in 2028, but COP31, which opens in Antalya on November 9, will be the first UN climate summit since India submitted its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). It raises the bar for climate ambition, targeting 60% non-fossil installed capacity by 2035 and relying heavily on the power sector to drive the transition over the next decade. Climate impacts are rising in India and worldwide. The world will likely cross the 1.5°C threshold in the next few years, as per a recent UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report. The margin by which this threshold is breached before accelerated mitigation efforts bend the temperature curve again will determine how catastrophic climate impacts become. All countries must double down on mitigation now. Yet India’s 2035 NDC targets are being tested in real time, as rising demand, especially in non-solar hours, pushes for all available options, including fossil energy. At the same time, annual power demand could still be hit if India’s economic growth slows because of global conflict, trade disputes, supply chain concentrations, energy inflation, and the impact of artificial intelligence. The clean energy transition risks losing momentum just as it needs to accelerate. A target built for uncertainty India’s current position reflects both progress and credibility.…This article was originally published on Mongabay