No one can easily predict who will govern Egypt—no matter how clear the warning signs or preliminary conditions may seem.
Gamal Abdel Nasser emerged literally out of nowhere to dismantle the centuries-old monarchy of the Muhammad Ali dynasty.
Following Nasser, Anwar Sadat stepped out from the ranks of the Free Officers Movement to take the helm—a succession virtually no one had anticipated.
Sadat was the least flashy figure among his peers, a man hidden deep in the shadows who deliberately feigned passivity and deference until fate thrust him to the pinnacle of power.
Years later, from the commanders of the October 1973 War, Sadat selected Air Vice-Marshal Hosni Mubarak as his Vice President. Mubarak was neither the most prominent nor the highest-ranking officer in the military command chain, nor did he seek such a role; his highest personal ambition was to serve as ambassador to London or governor of Ismailia.
In a historical irony, Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood ascended to the presidency for a brief year, bypassing the group’s paramount figure, Khairat al-Shater, as well as its most prominent and influential leaders within the Guidance Bureau.
And most recently, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi rose from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to the presidency, despite being neither the oldest nor the most visible member of the military leadership.
Each president came to power through a unique set of circumstances.
Viewed from within their own narrative and the sequence of events as they saw them, their rise might seem logical, structured, or even inevitable.
Yet, when observed from the outside, each of them arrived unexpectedly, one way or another.
History has documented the names of dozens of kings, presidents, caliphs, governors, and sultans who have ruled Egypt from Narmer (Mena) down to the present day. Some held power multiple times, such as Al-Nasir Muhammad ibn Qalawun; others inherited the throne as children, like Tutankhamun; and some were even crowned as mere infants, as occurred during the Mamluk era.
Throughout Egypt’s long history, the leader has almost always been a matter of preordained fate rather than popular choice—with only rare exceptions scattered across the historical record.
President Sisi’s insistence on stepping down at the end of his current term has opened the floodgates to speculation, questions, and expectations regarding potential succession scenarios.
Likewise, his reference to a carefully selected elite that will undergo specialized training programs has sparked even greater debate than his sincere and firm pledge to leave office at the conclusion of his term in 2030.
This raises a fundamental question: Should the next president be a public choice emerging from among several figures shaped by public life—individuals evaluated and scrutinized by the people through their long-standing positions, statements, and vision for national affairs over the years, or during pivotal defining moments?
Or should President Sisi engineer a selection mechanism that presents the public with a candidate possessing specific qualifications, drawn from a defined elite, and tailored to fit a precise mold?
Today, after all these years, President Sisi’s vision and underlying philosophy are clearly decipherable.
The President seeks to hand over power to a trusted successor—defined strictly by his own standards. Many believe he is prioritizing his personal definition of trust and stewardship over the public’s fundamental right to freely choose their leader and future path.
After all, history has shown that given the choice, the electorate once brought the Muslim Brotherhood to power; had Hazem Salah Abu Ismail not been disqualified, he might well have taken the helm of Egypt.
Despite lingering skepticism surrounding the mechanism for selecting the fifty candidates the President announced to prepare for the upcoming era, a swarm of critical questions remains.
These range from demographic balances—male to female, Muslim to Christian, military to civilian, technocrats to politicians—to the debate over drawing candidates with genuine public policy experience versus plucking individuals from complete obscurity simply because they hold a PhD, even if their dissertations were on pre-Islamic poetry or shade gardening – with all due respect to every academic discipline.
Furthermore, should the President appoint one or more vice presidents following the selection of the fifty candidates, what would their prospects be moving forward?
And what if unforeseen circumstances abruptly forge a leader from entirely outside those designated ranks?
Does such a committee possess constitutional grounding backed by logic, rigor, empirical precedent, and established political practice across different regimes?
Or will it remain a mere proposal, destined to erode with time and shifting realities?
Such advanced institutions may well serve to train capable cadres for ministerial duties and senior state roles.
Yet, can the presidency—with all its unique aura, strategic imperatives, and grave demands—be subjected to a pre-programmed filtering mechanism? One designed by current figures whose own convictions, views, and biases will inevitably dictate who is brought close and who is sidelined?
To be sure, several nations feature covert circles that shape leaders and presidents. Chief among them is the US, with its secretive and ideological networks that have successfully propelled their members to the presidency and beyond.
Other nations groom future leaders within political parties and public life; some refine them behind the scenes of military and security establishments, while others draw them from ruling dynasties, the educated elite, or affluent classes.
Amid all these critical questions, one must acknowledge and commend President Sisi’s decisive commitment to a peaceful transfer of power, as well as his genuine concern for the nation’s destiny and his resolve to ensure that the best possible successor assumes this duty.
So I return to where I began: throughout history, the one who comes to govern Egypt is, more often than not, someone who emerges entirely beyond expectations.
Author’s biography:
Ahmed al-Doreiny is a prominent Egyptian journalist, author, television presenter, and documentary filmmaker.
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