Spain Election 2026
Published Saturday, 24 October, 9:40 a.m. ET (3:40 p.m. Madrid) · Source: EFE, Antena 3, El País
Key Facts
- Pledge: Pedro Sánchez promised to write abortion rights into Spain’s Constitution if he stays in office.
- Where: A Socialist rally in Granada, in southern Spain, on Saturday, 24 October 2026.
- Vote: Spain elects a new parliament on Sunday, 29 November 2026.
- Hurdle: A change to the Constitution needs a parliamentary majority that polls do not currently show.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi: Feijóo 82%, Sánchez 19% to be prime minister (as of 9:40 a.m. ET (3:40 p.m. Madrid) on Saturday, 24 October).
Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, promised on Saturday to write the right to abortion into the Spanish Constitution if he stays in government after the 29 November general election. He made the pledge at a Socialist rally in Granada, in the south of the country, the news agency EFE reported.
It is a campaign promise, not a law, and it comes five weeks before Spaniards vote in the Spain Election 2026 contest for all 350 seats in Congress. Sánchez leads the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), Spain’s main centre-left party.
In plain English
Sánchez leads Spain’s Socialists, who govern today. Writing a right into the Constitution makes it much harder for a later government to remove it, which is why he wants abortion protected that way.
His main rivals are the People’s Party (PP), Spain’s main conservative party, and Vox, a conservative nationalist party.
What Sánchez Promised
Sánchez said that if he governs in the next term he will reinforce and “shield” abortion rights in the Constitution. He added that euthanasia, which is legal in Spain, would stay in place as “a great conquest” and that the minimum wage would keep rising “with or without” an agreement with employers.
Organisers put the crowd at about 3,000 people, according to Antena 3. “The right of women in our country to have an abortion is not touched,” Sánchez said, according to El País.
Why He Raised It Now
The pledge answered Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the PP, who leads in the polls. On Friday, Feijóo said on Cadena SER radio that Spain should reopen the debate on parental consent for minors seeking an abortion, El País reported.
Sánchez accused the PP and Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, of planning an “interminable list” of cuts. He said they offered “not an alternation but an involution”, a step backwards.
He also asked the crowd whether it wanted France’s Marine Le Pen, US President Donald Trump or Argentina’s President Javier Milei, and the crowd answered no. He then placed Feijóo and Abascal in what he called the “chainsaw club” with Milei.
Can He Deliver It?
Not on current polling, according to El País. It reported that Sánchez raised the same idea in the last term without success, and that it needs a left-wing majority that surveys do not come close to predicting.
Under Article 167 of the Constitution, a reform normally needs three-fifths of both Congress and the Senate. See where the parties stand in our Spain election polls tracker and our profile of Pedro Sánchez.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Kalshi, prime minister after the election (22,479 contracts traded): Alberto Núñez Feijóo 82%, Pedro Sánchez 19%, Santiago Abascal 3%.
- Polymarket, winner of the Spanish election (about US$165,693 traded): PP 76%.
Prices are the implied probability of each outcome as of 9:40 a.m. ET (3:40 p.m. Madrid) on Saturday, 24 October. They are real-money bets, not polls, and Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Spain is a NATO member and one of the euro area’s large economies, so who governs Madrid matters to investors and diplomats. Bettors currently expect a conservative-led government.
Abortion is also a live issue in US campaigns, and Sánchez is betting that defending it will bring out progressive voters. Whether it does will show in the polls over the next five weeks.
What Is Not Known
Sánchez has not said what wording he would put in the Constitution, or whether the change would go to a referendum. Reports do not say whether the PP has adopted a formal plan on parental consent.
It is also unclear whether any party beyond the Socialists would back the reform.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Pedro Sánchez promise on abortion?
He promised to reinforce and shield the right to abortion in Spain’s Constitution if he stays prime minister after the 29 November 2026 election. He made the pledge at a Socialist rally in Granada on Saturday, 24 October.
Is abortion protected in Spain’s Constitution now?
No. The pledge is a campaign promise, not an adopted amendment. Reports do not give the wording he would propose.
How hard is it to change Spain’s Constitution?
Article 167 normally requires a three-fifths majority in both Congress and the Senate. El País says Sánchez raised the idea in the last term without success.
When is Spain’s general election?
It is on Sunday, 29 November 2026, to choose the 350-seat Congress of Deputies and the Senate.
What do prediction markets say about Spain’s election?
On Kalshi, Alberto Núñez Feijóo is at 82% to become prime minister and Pedro Sánchez at 19%. These are bets, not polls.
Sources: EFE via ABC, Antena 3 Noticias, 20minutos, El País, Spanish Constitution, Kalshi, Polymarket.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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