Fantasy Football: With most of Week 5 in the books, who's officially in (or out) of the Circle of Trust?

I talked about “my people” at work to open up Friday’s piece. If all else fails or I need a quick turnaround on a task, the folks in my Circle of Trust can’t miss. But I didn’t mention how they got there. It took a few last-minute requests from leadership or out-of-the-blue emergencies for me to keep seeing the same names cc’d on emails or in virtual meetings. After each exchange, my network got a bit tighter.

Sunday’s fantasy football action puts us in a similar spot. We had some guys who were on the fringe after a month of the season. Now, we’ve seen them play. Some answered the call. Others left us on read. So, let’s sort out who’s earned a spot in our Circle of Trust for Week 6, and who we should reconsider before leaving in our starting lineups.

The Good and Bad from the Jaguars’ Trip to London

Coincidentally, Trevor Lawrence was the first player I noted as being on the edge of the circle for weekly consideration but had the runway to secure our confidence against the Eagles. On the one hand, HC Liam Coen still called a run-oriented game (-4.5% PROE). Lawrence posted his lowest passing efficiency marks, too. But when he let the ball fly to Parker Washington, it was magic. 

I yelled when Washington caught his second TD. Just unreal concentration and body control. But as the game was unfolding, I started taking count of how often I’d see No. 11 in the vicinity of the ball. Because heading into this game, his involvement was heading in the wrong direction.

• Week 2: 41.4% (Target Rate), 56.5% (Air Yard Share)

• Week 3: 18.5%, 27.0%

• Week 4: 13.0%, 22.0%

After hoarding 12 targets against the Broncos, Washington needed 1.5 games to cross half of that total. But a progressive shift in Lawrence’s play has benefited his primary slot man. His average time to throw has ticked up since Week 1. At 2.5 seconds per attempt (fastest), the Eagles had Lawrence under duress on 27.3% of his dropbacks (second-lowest). Accordingly, two-thirds of Washington’s targets came on throws with a quick release.

Washington (and Brenton Strange) continue to separate themselves from the rest of the pass-catching corps in Jacksonville. And facing Houston next week (44.4% of their pressures in less than 2.5 seconds) should keep him in the limelight.

But this same defense may have us questioning our other favorite skill player from the Jaguars.

If I ever see a clip of a bad run from Bhayshul Tuten, it’ll be the first one. Take that back — getting stopped on fourth-and-goal counts. But I’d argue Chris Rodriguez Jr.’s ill-timed attempt at blocking ruined things. Coen’s idea of giving Rodriguez direct snaps at the goal line didn’t help either. Either way, Tuten’s “good for real football, but bad for fantasy” streak continued.

• Week 3: 17.0 (PPR points), 57.7% (RB Carry Share)

• Week 4: 11.1, 73.9%

• Week 5: 11.6, 91.7%

The glass-half-full take would be that Tuten has full control of the backfield. Rodriguez’s 13.2% snap rate was his lowest of the year. Accordingly, Tuten took 75% of the short-yardage totes and over half of the plays in the green zone. Ameer Abdullah’s play time was also down, giving Tuten more time to operate as a receiver (47.7% route rate, season-high) and be on the field for obvious passing situations. To go with the extra opportunities, Tuten’s peripherals continue to stand out when compared to his peers.

• Rushing Success Rate: 45.1%, 5th (among all RBs – min. 60 carries)

• Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 3.62, 8th 

• Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 29.3%, 2nd 

Going back to the start of last season, Houston — Jacksonville’s Week 6 opponent — allowed a 100-yard rusher twice or an RB to score multiple TDs just twice. Every RB to crest 15 PPR points against the Texans averaged 4.4 targets per game; a total Tuten is yet to earn. Jacksonville’s passing game has been enough to move them into scoring position, and Tuten could capitalize. But with their bye coming in Week 7, drafters should get ahead of finding a replacement for Tuten (Dameon Pierce, Woody Marks or Samaje Perine). 

Pittsburgh Doesn’t Need A Committee

If you played in single-week fantasy formats or needed a big performance out of the early games after a dud on TNF, the analysis comes down to this: you either had Jaylen Warren, or you didn’t. 

I’ll be honest. I didn’t see this coming from Warren. Not because of what I thought about his talent. But what the Steelers were telling us about it. Pittsburgh wasted no time signing Rico Dowdle to the fifth-highest RB contract during free agency. Coupled with Dowdle’s history with HC Mike McCarthy from their Dallas days, Warren’s path to an RB1 workload was shrouded yet again. However, Dowdle’s toe injury has forced the Steelers’ coaches to acknowledge what fantasy managers have known for years:

Treat Warren like an RB1 — good things happen.

• Week 3: 89.5% (RB Carry Share), 15.4% (Targets per Route Run), 176 (Scrimmage Yards)

• Week 4: 89.5%, 18.2%, 126

• Week 5: 93.8%, 22.2%, 188

Since taking over as the starter in Week 3, Warren’s 20.3 touches per game rank 10th. However, his 490 scrimmage yards have the 5’8” runner standing taller than anyone else with his position designation. 

Since Week 3, Warren sits in front of RBs like Tuten, James Cook III and Derrick Henry in forced missed tackle rate. And as a receiver, only Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs and Ashton Jeanty are averaging more yards per route run. Warren’s fantasy-point totals tell us the same story. But whether it’s one the Steelers want to hear is worth considering.

Dowdle went through pre-game warmups, but didn’t play. We should take this as a sign he’ll be back in the mix against the Bucs in Week 6. Along with McCarthy noting there’s “a number” they have in mind for Warren’s weekly touches, holding Dowdle to see the backfield split would be reasonable. However, with no rusher against Tampa reaching more than 60 yards on the ground, Warren’s usage as a pass-catcher should keep him as the RB1, and Dowdle’s value will continue to fall.

Jameson Williams Did the Bugs Bunny Meme

My general thought is that a receiver’s life would be easier if their skill set evolved. A short area pass-catcher learning to create separation downfield leads to more first downs, keeping the offense on schedule. Deep threats working on running more intermediate routes invite less volatility on a play-to-play basis. And through the first few weeks, we were seeing that from Jameson Williams.

But for Jared Goff to get the best out of him, Williams had to go back to his old self.

Despite the lack of production (averaging 57.3 YPG), you could tell yourself a story about things improving for Williams. His aDOT was down by about a quarter (19.5 air yards to 13.9), and his slot reps were up. On top of Goff targeting Williams on more crossing routes (40.0% through Week 4), the idea of him being more than a deep threat was more than theoretical. But two problems came up.

The intermediate work hasn’t led to more of getting the ball to Williams in space and letting him work after the catch. He had -1 (!!) YAC on throws of 10-19 air yards coming into Week 5. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta took the middle-of-the-field work. Plus, Isaac TeSlaa was digging into the downfield opportunities (30.0%). Luckily, Week 5 solved one problem (season-low route rate for TeSlaa), but left us in the same place we’ve been with Williams since he came to Detroit.

• Total Targets: 4 (tied for season-low)

• Receiving aDOT: 32.5 (season-high)

• Slot Snap Rate: 19.0% (second-lowest)

The “should-be” easy buttons were gone for Williams during Goff’s easiest day under center. Arizona created pressure on just 18.2% of his dropbacks. Even with a condensed passing tree, the plan to attack downfield (10.1 air yards per attempt) only adds variance, not confidence that what we saw out of Williams was real. And with two tough divisional matchups on the other side of their bye (Packers, Vikings), we’ll need to re-examine Williams’ place as a low-end WR2.