Morocco’s economy is expected to end 2026 on a stronger note, with GDP growth accelerating to 4.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
This follows estimated growth of 4.1% in the third quarter and 4% in the second, HCP said.
The pickup would be driven by a recovery in extractive industries, continued strength in agriculture and services, and solid domestic demand.
Agriculture and services alone are projected to contribute around 4 percentage points to growth.
Household consumption is forecast to rise 4.3% year-on-year, supported by favorable bank financing and measures limiting energy inflation.
Investment should accelerate to 6.8%, boosted by major infrastructure projects.
The baseline scenario assumes stable energy prices. A further escalation of Middle East tensions could weigh on growth, while an easing of energy constraints and lower oil prices could lift expansion to 5.3%.
The improved outlook comes after the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict in late February, which pushed commodity prices higher.
Secondary activities contracted, but strong primary sector growth (nearly 20%) and resilient services kept overall expansion above 4%.
External trade’s negative contribution narrowed, while financing conditions remained supportive.