No business plan can survive in a war zone. No farmer will invest in a field they cannot safely reach. No infrastructure can generate value when it is perpetually under attack. Security is not a soft policy issue at the periphery of economic planning, it is the foundational prerequisite for every other dimension of economic life. Where security fails, productivity collapses, investment retreats, and development stalls.
At the 32nd Nigerian Economic Summit, themed ‘Growth that Works: Delivering Jobs, Productivity and Shared Prosperity,’ the Secure Nigeria sub-theme places the restoration of safety and stability at the heart of the economic agenda. The argument is direct: without security, every other goal be it job creation, industrialisation, shared prosperity or subnational growth becomes either impossible or profoundly more costly to achieve.
The Economic Cost of Insecurity: What Nigeria Is Losing
The scale of Nigeria’s security challenge has real, measurable economic consequences. Farmers across the North-West, North-Central, and North-East zones have been displaced from their lands, collapsing local food production and contributing to food insecurity that now affects a significant proportion of the population. The World Food Programme and the Food and Agriculture Organisation have repeatedly flagged Nigeria as one of the countries with the highest food insecurity levels on the continent.
In the Niger Delta, oil theft commonly referred to as crude oil bunkering deprives Nigeria of a significant portion of its export revenues and has, at various points, reduced crude oil production substantially below official targets. Attacks on oil infrastructure compound these losses, triggering costly repairs and deterring the investment needed to expand productive capacity.
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Critical infrastructure attacks particularly on power transmission equipment and telecommunications towers impose costs that ripple across the entire economy. Every instance of a destroyed transformer or vandalized fibre cable degrades the productive environment for businesses, households, and communities that depend on electricity and connectivity to function.
Food Security and the Agrarian Crisis
The relationship between security and food security in Nigeria has reached a critical point. Farmer-herder conflicts, banditry, and terrorist activity have displaced millions of agricultural households from highly productive regions. The North-West which is historically one of Nigeria’s most important food-producing zones has seen dramatic reductions in cultivated land as farmers abandon fields out of fear.
NES #32 will examine the specific security interventions required to restore access to farmland and stabilise agrarian production in Nigeria’s most affected regions. This includes community-based security models, the strategic deployment of law enforcement in high-value agricultural corridors, technology-enabled early warning systems for conflict, and policy frameworks that address the underlying resource competition driving farmer-herder violence.
Protecting Critical Infrastructure: A National Economic Priority
Nigeria’s power and telecommunications infrastructure has long been a target for vandalism, theft, and deliberate attack. The consequences extend well beyond the immediate point of destruction. A damaged transmission tower disrupts electricity supply across entire grid sections. A destroyed telecommunications mast disconnects communities from mobile money, digital markets, emergency services, and the basic connectivity that modern economic participation requires.
NES #32 will prioritise the development of a comprehensive critical infrastructure protection framework; one that combines physical security measures, community engagement strategies, rapid repair capacity, and severe legal deterrents for infrastructure attacks. The goal is to reduce the frequency and impact of attacks sufficiently to restore the investment confidence of infrastructure developers and operators.
Oil Security and the Recovery of Nigeria’s Energy Revenues
Oil theft remains one of the most economically damaging security challenges facing Nigeria. Estimates of losses from crude oil bunkering have at times reached hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, a staggering haemorrhage of public revenue and foreign exchange earnings. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), international oil companies, and independent operators have all cited security as a primary constraint on production growth and new investment.
NES #32 will examine the governance, operational, and community-engagement approaches required to significantly reduce oil theft, including greater transparency in the upstream value chain, enhanced monitoring technologies, the economic inclusion of communities in the Niger Delta, and stronger enforcement against the domestic and international networks that enable crude oil theft at scale.
Security and Investment Confidence: Sending the Right Signal
Beyond the direct economic losses caused by insecurity, there is the subtler but equally damaging impact on investor confidence. Businesses, both domestic and international conduct risk assessments before committing capital. A country with widespread insecurity, unprotected production zones, and vulnerable infrastructure receives a risk premium in those assessments: higher financing costs, lower investment volumes, and a systematic preference for short-term, extractive activity over long-term, productive investment.
Restoring security therefore has a dual economic dividend: it directly reduces losses, and it signals to the market that Nigeria is a viable environment for productive investment. NES #32 will explore how security-sector reform, community stabilisation programmes, and governance improvements can compound to shift Nigeria’s risk profile; and with it, the quantity and quality of investment the country can attract.
A Whole-of-Society Approach to Security
NES #32 approaches security not as a purely military or law enforcement question but as a whole-of-society challenge that requires economic, governance, and social responses alongside security-sector ones. Poverty, inequality, unemployment, and exclusion are among the root conditions that fuel insecurity in Nigeria. Addressing them is not soft; it is strategic.
The summit will examine how economic development programmes, social protection, community investment, and conflict-sensitive governance can complement security operations to achieve durable, rather than temporary, stability. Security and development are not alternatives, they are complements. A Nigeria that invests in both will be more stable, more productive, and more prosperous.
The 32nd Nigerian Economic Summit holds on 26 and 27 October 2026 at the Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja. The Secure Nigeria dialogue will bring together security experts, policymakers, business leaders, community representatives, and development partners to build the shared agenda for a safer, more stable, and more economically dynamic Nigeria.
About the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG)
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) is Nigeria’s foremost private sector-led policy advocacy and think tank organisation. For over three decades, the NESG has provided a credible platform for public-private dialogue, shaping policies and strategies that drive Nigeria’s economic progress. The annual Nigerian Economic Summit (NES) remains the premier gathering of business leaders, policymakers, and development stakeholders committed to Nigeria’s transformation.
Ayanyinka Ayanlowo
Head, Strategic Communication and Advocacy
NESG