Haines’ alleged attacker was once progressive. The left needs to pay attention

A familiar pattern often plays out online after a lone wolf attack, occurring in the window between the attack itself and when a suspect is named. The “left” and “right” flock to blame the other for causing the radicalisation that led to it, both desperately hoping they are right.

On Monday, those questions quickly arose after Indi MP Helen Haines was “rammed” twice by a car in broad daylight in Wangaratta, an attack that has left her in a critical condition, with one leg amputated. There was immediate confusion: who would want to hurt Haines, widely respected regional MP, anti-corruption warrior, and “big sister” to her fellow independents?

Some were quick to point the finger at One Nation, suggesting Pauline Hanson’s rhetoric led to rising hostility (a 2024 Please Explain cartoon in which Bluey — for some reason — runs over Daniel Andrews). Others suggested the perpetrator must’ve mistaken Haines’ orange car for one owned by One Nation, given the threats Hanson faces as the party’s divisive leader.

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We don’t yet know the motive behind the attack, and we may never get a clear one. But we do have a suspect, 43-year-old Brendan Nugent, who was reportedly affected by drugs or alcohol at the time of the alleged attack (he wasn’t questioned until Tuesday morning). Nugent’s lawyer told the Wangarrata district court on Wednesday that he had a neurological condition and mental health concerns, something reports had already highlighted: neighbours regularly called police over his erratic behaviour, and he previously had an intervention order taken out against him. In a sad twist, Nugent’s dad and stepmum have been revealed to be long-time friends of Haines, as many are in the tight-knit regional community.

But as News Corp has reported at length, Nugent’s social media history suggests he was a pro-Palestine environmentalist — a “pro-Gaza” “plant person”, as The Oz put it — who regularly tweeted at politicians. Old posts focused on logging and climate change, while posts since the Hamas attack on October 7 rail against leaders for allowing Israel to bomb Gazans with impunity, with the latter quickly becoming a focus of right-wing media and influencers. (Counter-terrorism expert Dr Joshua Roose noted that Nugent had more recently “descended” into a “much darker place” involving conspiracy theories about child sexual abuse, though this seems to be getting far less media attention.)

To complicate matters, Nugent previously tweeted at Haines, never with malice, praising her in 2019 as a “politician who takes climate change seriously”. Haines followed him back, as did Greens leader David Shoebridge, something right-wing influencers have tried to make something of. Nugent’s account, which remains active, follows independent progressive outlet Michael West Media, “home of the weird left” Novara Media, and yours truly, along with a range of world leaders and far-right conspiracy theorist Candace Owens.

Haines, meanwhile, is broadly progressive, a strong but gentle advocate for integrity, climate and — as the Australian Jewish Association (AJA) pointed out — Palestine (the Indi MP “made many anti-Israel statements”, the AJA alleges, undercutting its own claim that Nugent was driven by “ANTI-ISRAEL” sentiment). 

All this makes it harder to assume the motivation behind the attack, a determination that must be made by experts. None of this has stopped News Corp from doubling down, with a front-page op-ed declaring this a “Message to the Left” to “stop minimising” far-left extremism, which it says Labor is not taking as seriously as extremism on the right.

Some on the left are understandably defensive here. Unscrupulous elements of the right have been quick to blame the pro-Palestine movement for prior tragedies it has had absolutely nothing to do with. Many will argue progressive movements had nothing to do with this one either: correlation does not mean causation, though let’s not pretend for a second that lefties would not be calling for Hanson’s resignation had Nugent turned out to be a One Nation follower. 

But it’s an uncomfortable fact for progressives that Haines’ alleged attacker (however potentially confused) appears to have once been one of their own — a lonely-looking, chronically online white dude who would be familiar to many. Whether it’s the keyboard warrior that posts a little too frequently, a little too fervently about their hatred of Israel, or the climate activist who feels “broken” by the system, the online rabbit hole is ready to consume anyone who loses touch with community or reality, no matter what side of politics they come from.

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That’s not to say that left-wing ideology is just as likely to produce domestic terrorists as right-wing ideology, or that calling out One Nation’s racism and posting cartoons in which politicians are run down are morally equivalent. They are not. But it does have to be admitted that radicalisation and violence can come from anywhere, even from those who follow professors of peace and conflict resolution on X, as Nugent did.

Former Liberal MP Nicolle Flint has already been out comparing this tragedy to the campaign she faced from activist group GetUp! in 2019, suggesting the left engages in “double standards” when it came to attacks on her. Just once I’d like to see Flint use such a moment to condemn violent rhetoric on the left and the right, but she does have a point: progressives have a responsibility to ensure their side doesn’t descend into hatred, and that activists are not swallowed up by the darker corners of the internet.

There is a great deal to be angry about right now, particularly for those who care about social justice, equality and the planet. But if we want to prevent events like the one that occurred on Monday afternoon, we do indeed need to “lower the temperature”.

Liberal MP Andrew Hastie, who has faced more than his share of violent online threats, had the right idea yesterday afternoon, telling ABC Mornings now was not the time to “point fingers at our political opponents and say, ‘See, it was something that they posted.’” We all need to do better. That includes “the left”, a broad church that Nugent — whatever his alleged motivations — was once a part of, whether progressives like it or not.