Milwaukee Brewers executive Matt Arnold has heard it all before.
Teams like his shouldn't be able to compete for World Series championships — and the numbers back it up. The next World Series the Brewers win will be the first.
On the eve of a National League Championship Series rematch between the Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, the debate around whether MLB needs a salary cap to even the playing field between small and large-market teams came into sharp focus.
Three small-market franchises — the Brewers, Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays — are among the four still in the running for a championship. The other contender is the Dodgers, who won the last two World Series.
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On Saturday, Oct. 11, one day before a Brewers-Dodgers National League Championship Series rematch, Arnold was asked if his team felt "insulted" by the league's insistence that small-market teams needed a salary cap to compete for championships.
"Nobody here is worried about that right now," Arnold said. "We're focused on trying to win, and I think we have for a while. Regardless of what the economics look like, the guys in there believe, and so do I."
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There's a glint of naivety in the idea that self-belief can overcome a payroll gap of nearly $200 million between the two NLCS foes. The Brewers' formula for success rests on more than confidence, however, and their 103-win season was hardly a fluke. They've won the last four NL Central championships.
Still, the question is valid. How can MLB argue that the Brewers need more financial assistance to compete? The Rays' and Guardians' payrolls ranked even lower on Opening Day — 26th and 30th by the Associated Press' estimates.
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"MLB believes the growing gap in team payrolls is making it harder for fans in every market to believe their team has a fair chance to compete," the league wrote on its website, a message it has promoted on its social media channels.
It's the crux of the argument MLB is promoting to fans as justification for what is expected to be an intense labor war. A lockout is all but assured of going into effect on Dec. 1, when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.
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But a lockout is not a necessary; it's a negotiating lever the league is choosing to pull. The Brewers can undermine MLB's entire justification for locking out players just by winning the NLCS and World Series.
They might not be choosing to use that as motivation. Or if they are, Arnold isn't willing to say so on the record. Regardless, it's a pretty powerful motivator.
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