Four members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council — Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan — have published a report of over 70 pages on the consequences of Armenia joining the EU and leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The report claims that while Armenia would suffer massive economic losses, the effect on other member states would be almost insignificant.
Armenia has been a member of the Russia-led EAEU since 2015. However, in 2025, the Armenian Parliament passed a law launching EU accession — which Moscow and Minsk say is incompatible with EAEU membership.
At the Astana summit in May 2026, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan called for Armenia to hold a referendum on whether to join the EU or remain in the EAEU. They also requested a report by December on the potential ramifications of suspending Armenia’s participation. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claimed that Armenia has not violated its obligations and has not made a decision to leave. The EAEU.
Meanwhile, Russia has warned of incompatibility issues with dual membership and with EU and EAEU goods. Russia has already banned the import of a range of Armenian goods, citing a range of reasons — however, many believe it is to put pressure on Yerevan amid the country’s EU membership bid.
Armenia disputes the grounds for expelling it from the EAEU, and the World Bank has warned that the restrictions could hinder Armenia’s growth. The EAEU Treaty contains no procedure for suspending or expelling a member.
The report is titled ‘On the Possible Consequences of Suspending, with Respect to the Republic of Armenia, the Application of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of 29 May 2014’ and signed by the presidents of the four countries. It explains the legal grounds for suspending Armenia and the serious economic consequences.
According to the report, Armenia’s trade with the EAEU in 2025 was worth just under $8 billion (exports of $3.2 billion and imports of $4.8 billion). This accounts for 37.8% of Armenia’s total trade. In 2025, trade with Armenia made up 0.91% of Russia’s trade turnover, 0.28% of Belarus’, 0.05% of Kazakhstan’s, and 0.02% of Kyrgyzstan’s. The report states that 97-99% of the drop in trade and services would fall on Russia, and that the lost volumes could be redirected within the EAEU market. The estimated direct decline in exports and imports is below 1% for all four states. Russia’s decline is the largest, at 0.55% for exports and 0.65% for imports.
On labour migration, the report points to a large difference in how much each side depends on it. It estimates that 126,900 Armenians work in other EAEU states, and 98.2% of them work in Russia. The remittance forecast is based on the average for 2010–2014. The impact on the labour markets of other member states is considered minimal, since only 17,400 EAEU workers are employed in Armenia.
Besides the financial consequences, the report lists changes to the economic privileges Armenia now has.
In case of suspension of membership, Armenian goods would be treated like those of any third country, with customs declarations, controls, and duties. Armenian product certificates would no longer be recognised, and suppliers would have to be re-approved. Armenian workers would lose their free access to the labour market, as well as their medical and social coverage. Transport permits would be needed, rail tariffs would rise, and Armenian companies would lose equal treatment in public procurement.
The most significant effects could be on energy, through changes to gas arrangements, and the loss of access to free trade agreements.
Armenia can not have it all
The report says that, in 2025, when the Armenian Parliament passed a law announcing the start of the EU accession process, the government backed the bill despite this conflicting with EAEU obligations.
In September, the EU Council adopted temporary trade liberalisation measures for Armenian products, covering around 80% of Armenian exports to the EU. The long-awaited measures come amidst continued Russian restrictions on Armenian exports.
The four states say they are ‘not interested’ in Armenia leaving the EAEU, and they describe suspension as respecting the right of Armenians to decide.
The report quotes Pashinyan’s statements on EU membership from the past year, claiming that despite being pushed to, Armenia is not planning a referendum to leave the EAEU and join the EU.
‘The mere fact that Armenia has passed a law on launching the process of joining the EU does not mean that Armenia is currently in a position to become a member of the EU’, Pashinyan said in August.
From this, the report concludes that Armenia aims to keep its EAEU benefits during EU negotiations, which raises questions about its status in the EAEU.
The report finds dual membership to be both legally and practically impossible, because the EU and the EAEU each have their own supranational rules. For example, a state cannot belong to two customs unions, as it cannot meet all three of these principles at once: a single customs territory, free movement without declarations or duties, and a common external tariff and trade measures. The report then lists the agreements each union has with other countries, many of which conflict with each other. It also points out differences in product requirements, such as the EAEU’s stricter limits on antibiotics, ractopamine, nitrates, certain pesticides and GMOs.
While expressing a willingness to suspend Armenia’s membership, the report admits that the EAEU Treaty has no mechanism for members to suspend each other.
In June, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin was asked how membership could be ended concerning this. He said that experts will examine both the economic and legal aspects. The only exit provided by the treaty is voluntary withdrawal, a process which Armenia has not started.
The report, however, points to two legal possibilities. The first is Article 3 of the treaty, which obliges members not to take measures that could endanger the Union’s goals. The second is the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, under which the other parties may jointly suspend a treaty in relation to a state that has materially breached it. The report says this suspension could last until Armenia holds a referendum on EAEU membership versus EU accession.