Russia has been selling off gold throughout this year. September brought a further reduction in its reserves of the precious metal of around 6.2 tonnes, bringing the total reduction since January to about 62 tonnes.
Only once in its modern history has Russia disposed of gold at a similarly rapid pace, when in 1998 it sold 118 tonnes from its reserves in just three months.
Russia is offloading gold, China is buying
According to Adam Stroniawski, managing director of Polish precious metals dealer Mennica Skarbowa, "Russia has a serious budget shortfall because of its war in Ukraine and wants to inject more funds into the defence sector". He tells Euronews that Russia is selling gold outside the London bullion market, saying that "the sell-off of reserves will take place in Hong Kong, and the main buyer is China's central bank".
Stroniawski concludes that the impact of these transactions on the global gold price would therefore be negligible.
According to Hong Kong trade data, from January to July around 100 tonnes of Russian gold reached Hong Kong – nearly three times as much as in the same period last year.
The expert does not rule out Russia returning to the group of countries buying gold and rebuilding its reserves, just as it did after its 1998 sell-off.
Gold market: Kazakhstan takes profits
A few days before the Russian central bank published its data, investors learned that Kazakhstan also plans to sell part of its gold reserves.
The country, which straddles two continents, was among the world's biggest buyers of gold in the first eight months of 2026. It has now announced that by the end of the year it intends to reduce its gold holdings so that gold accounts for 75% of its total reserves.
"The liquidation of part of Kazakhstan's gold-denominated foreign reserves may seem surprising, because for years the country was one of the biggest buyers of bullion," says Stroniawski.
He says the shift may be temporary, driven by the need to plug a budget deficit or take profits.
"Kazakhstan has been buying gold for a long time, so it will now be selling at a significant profit," he adds.
The expert stresses that both the scale of the planned reduction – from around 78% to 75% of total reserves – and the spreading of sales over time mean that these transactions, too, will not have a major impact on global gold markets.
Is this the start of a gold sell-off?
The change in approach by Russia and Kazakhstan raises questions about whether this is the beginning of a new trend among central banks, and whether Poland might follow in their footsteps. In recent years Poland has significantly increased its gold reserves and could take profits while gold prices remain high. In Stroniawski's view, however, this scenario is highly unlikely.
"This stems from internal factors, with government policy and central bank policy moving in different directions. In this parliamentary term it is unlikely that reserves will be liquidated," says Stroniawski.
Indeed, the National Bank of Poland has been actively buying gold for several years, and Poland's current reserves are already close to the target of 700 tonnes. According to the expert, this does not have to mean the end of gold purchases by the central bank. He says large gold reserves improve the country's credit standing and help to stabilise the currency.
"At present, with its level of gold reserves, Poland ranks 10th in the world. In my opinion, reaching 700 tonnes will only be one stage. It does not mean the end of purchases or the start of a sell-off," says Stroniawski.
Gold price forecasts: 'I wouldn't assume it will ever be cheaper'
"At the moment, many investors who bought gold a few years ago may be thinking about taking profits," the expert says. He adds that the precious metal saw significant price increases in recent years, although its price has weakened in 2026.
Gold prices rose 25.5% in 2024 and 67.4% in 2025 in US dollar terms, according to the World Gold Council. However, they fell 4.4% in the first nine months of 2026.
Stroniawski sees temporary corrections in the price of gold as not affecting its long-term upward trend. He believes buying by central banks and investors who treat gold as a safe haven and a reserve asset will support further price rises.
"When it comes to gold, I wouldn't assume it will ever be cheaper. However, buying it delivers reliable profits only over the long term," Stroniawski emphasises.