How Qatar Airways Is Rebalancing Its US East Coast Flying After American Airlines Quit Doha

The airline industry is going through a difficult and unpredictable time right now. Middle Eastern airlines, which have emerged over the past two decades as some of the world's largest and best international carriers, are most affected by the ongoing war in Iran. Their hubs were previously known as economically attractive and insulated from regional conflicts but have now found themselves in the line of fire, and this is leading to interesting developments in the industry.

In one instance, American Airlines suspended its route from Philadelphia International Airport (PHL) to Doha Hamad International Airport (DOH) when the war broke out, and then later announced that the DOH route wouldn't come back. However, Philadelphia customers need not fear loss of Middle Eastern service, as Qatar Airways now operates its own route from PHL to DOH. At the same time, the airline will soon cut back its third nonstop frequency between Doha and New York.

Route Changes In The Northeast & Middle East

American Airlines temporarily suspended its nonstop route to DOH when the Iran War broke out, and confirmed its permanent cancellation in June. American first began serving DOH, its only Middle Eastern destination at the time, in 2022 from New York JFK Airport and then switched its US port to Philadelphia the following year. Doha is not nearly as large a city as Dubai, while neither American's New York JFK nor Philadelphia hubs are particularly huge, but the main reason for this route is connectivity with fellow oneworld member Qatar Airways.

Qatar Airways formerly flew to Philadelphia with its own metal before American took over the route, and as the two have a codeshare agreement, the route essentially continued as normal but with an American Boeing 787. At this same time, Qatar Airways also added a third nonstop frequency between DOH and JFK that would operate four times per week, bringing weekly frequencies to JFK from 14 to 18 flights per week. This schedule would persist until the war, with permanent adjustments coming later in the summer.

In August, Qatar Airways began daily flights between Doha and Philadelphia with an Airbus A350, while it will be ending its third JFK flight at the end of October. This is essentially the carrier reallocating capacity to what it flew before American Airlines began flying to Doha, and it comes during a point when foreign airlines are generally avoiding the Middle East, while the local carriers (including Qatar Airways) have largely restored their pre-war schedules. Of course, now is far from the most predictable time in the industry.

The Effects Of The Iran War On Airlines

One way that airlines worldwide have been impacted by the conflict is higher fuel prices, which have nearly doubled compared to a year ago. In the Middle East, airspace restrictions have increased congestion and flight times. However, destinations like Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and more had become major destinations in their own right; before the war, United served Dubai from Newark, and Delta announced nonstop flights to Riyadh, while Air Canada also flew to Dubai. Today, none of these flights are operating.

Attacks on Middle Eastern airports mean that there's an elevated risk of aircraft being damaged and airline crew being injured. Carriers operating to Middle Eastern cities are facing significantly higher insurance premiums due to the added risk, while labor unions (including those at the North American airlines) usually have strong objections to permitting layovers or turnarounds at these spokes. What's more, most airlines operating long-haul flights (including the North American carriers) don't have a huge presence in the Middle East, making it high-risk and low-reward.

The local carriers like Qatar Airways need to maintain their pre-existing schedules to the best of their ability, especially because a major part of the selling point is their global networks and competitive schedules. As a whole, it's critical for these airlines to still maintain service to as many destinations as possible, but it's much harder for foreign carriers to justify these routes today. Most airlines have been pushing back their restart dates, and American won't come back at all for now.

Qatar Airways' US Network Today

As it stands, Qatar Airways now serves 12 destinations in the US: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York-JFK, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington. It's notably the only Middle Eastern airline serving Philadelphia, and this airport is important for Qatar Airways because of its relationship with American Airlines. Philadelphia serves as American's primary transatlantic hub, which means that the airline also has a substantial connecting network to feed these flights.

Because of the partnership between American and Qatar, the flight between Philadelphia and Doha benefits from feed in Philadelphia as well as in Doha; it essentially functions as a long-haul hub-to-hub flight, regardless of which airline operates it. The same is true for Qatar Airways' flights to Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, and New York JFK, as these are also hubs for American Airlines.

Ultimately, this is a small adjustment for the oneworld airline in response to American pulling out of Doha. This ensures that Philadelphia still has a nonstop link to Doha, and the airline is also trimming capacity in its largest US spoke as the summer season ends and travel begins to slow down. More interesting, however, is American's decision to permanently discontinue the Doha route, especially as American is otherwise looking to expand its long-haul network.

Why American Airlines Left Doha (And Won't Return Anytime Soon)

Like almost all foreign airlines, American Airlines discontinued service to the Middle East after the conflict broke out, given the unsafe operating conditions at the start of the war. Some carriers have since returned to the Middle East, but United and Delta have delayed their returns due to the instability. For American, the volatility of the current situation is a factor, but the airline is also changing its widebody strategy to be more competitive with its rivals. As such, American has a better use for its 787s than to fly them to Doha.

Shortly after announcing that it would discontinue Doha, American Airlines announced a new route between Chicago and Tokyo Narita. Tokyo is the main hub for Japan Airlines, which is an even closer partner for American than Qatar Airways. However, the airline is looking to make its international network more competitive, as it's noticeably smaller across both oceans than Delta or United. In Chicago, American currently does not serve a single Asian destination, while the only one that United serves out of Chicago is Tokyo Haneda.

JAL could add more service to Chicago, but American found it fit to commence nonstop service with its own metal to boost its market relevance within Chicago. Tokyo is a more relevant spoke for US customers than Doha, and American has expressed interest in growing its long-haul network to serve more destinations with its own metal that its customers want to travel to. Until American has many more widebodies in its fleet, Doha is a low priority, especially given the volatile situation today.

American's Renewed Focus On Long-Haul

American Airlines, in the midst of financial struggles, is attempting a turnaround in an effort to better replicate the successful strategies practiced by rivals Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. Those two carriers are among the most profitable airlines in the world, while being a similar size and having a similar market position. Both carriers have found success in capturing premium traffic and long-haul routes, so American is focusing more heavily on premium customers and has ambitions to grow its international network.

American leadership has publicly spoken about closing the gap with competitors and has ambitions to grow the airline's Asian network in particular. However, the Tokyo route is really the only major step that we've seen the airline take so far. American's recent European additions have not been as expansive as United's new routes, and it has only 19 787s still on order. This is a tiny number for an airline the size of American and far lower than the number of new widebodies that either Delta or United have on order.

Of course, what could be a game-changer is American's current RFP to Airbus and Boeing for new widebodies, rumored to number roughly 65 aircraft. While it's been suggested that American could use these planes to replace its 47 Boeing 777-200ERs, they could very well also be used for long-haul growth given its current ambitions. It's difficult to predict how American will evolve its network in the future, but we could be on the precipice of major growth by American to serve routes more important than a feeder service to a smaller partner hub like Doha.