Todd Bowles’ hot seat has turned into a scalding stovetop, and if Bowles does end up getting canned this season, he will have a plethora of close losses to look back on as to why.
Todd Bowles’ Hot Seat: Why Close Losses Will Define End of His Tampa Bay Tenure
On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers surrendered a 13-point fourth-quarter lead to fall in overtime against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The loss dropped the Bucs to 1-5, and ESPN now gives the Bucs just a 25% chance to make the playoffs after Week 6.
Sunday’s game was the 12th straight one-score game Tampa Bay has played, dating back to November of last year; the Bucs are 3-9 in that stretch.
Other than Sunday’s implosion, the loss that sticks out the most during this one-score streak is their 29-28 loss to the Atlanta Falcons last December. Tampa Bay blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead en route to a loss against Atlanta that kept the team out of the playoffs.
A high number of one-score games is not unusual for the NFL. From 1999 to 2025, 50.7% of games ended in a one-score affair.
Tampa Bay’s overall record in one-score affairs is 19-24 since Todd Bowles took over as head coach in 2022. Both of the Bucs’ playoff losses under Bowles came in one-score affairs.
The recent trend of close losses has doomed the Bucs and Bowles.
Late Turnovers Costing the Bucs
On Sunday, the Bucs’ implosion was due in large part to a couple of fourth-quarter interceptions from undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels.
Pittsburgh scored six critical points in the fourth quarter following the interceptions. But more than that, the interceptions flipped the game’s momentum on its head.
This season, the Bucs rank 24th in the NFL, averaging 1.8 turnovers per game.
It’s not the first time Tampa Bay has thrown crucial interceptions late in a close loss. In Week 3 against Minnesota, Baker Mayfield threw an interception with under two minutes left and the team trailing by four points.
Last season, the Bucs had six total fourth-quarter turnovers, with five of them coming in one-score losses.
Tampa Bay’s lack of execution on offense has been holding the team back from success in fourth quarters. It hasn’t just come from one player. It’s multiple quarterbacks and players who have caused the turnovers. It’s been a systematic issue since Bowles took over as head coach.
Leaky Defense Late in Games
While the Bucs’ offense has been loose with the ball, the Bucs’ defense has struggled to stop opponents in crunch time as well.
On Sunday, the Steelers scored 16 points in the fourth quarter after mustering just three points through the first three quarters. Pittsburgh scored on its first four drives of the fourth quarter, en route to a demoralizing final frame for Tampa Bay. The Steelers also drove 70 yards on 12 plays for a touchdown on their only drive in overtime.
This season, Tampa Bay has allowed 41 fourth-quarter points, which is the fourth most of any team in the league.
A big cause of Tampa Bay’s struggles on defense has been its inability to stop other teams’ passing attacks. The Bucs rank 20th in the NFL, allowing opponents to throw for 224 passing yards per game this season. Their opponents are completing 66.5% of their passes this season, which is the fifth-highest opponent total in the league.
Since Bowles took over as the team’s defensive play caller, there has been a stark contrast in the team’s defensive success against ground and aerial attacks. The Bucs’ rushing defense has ranked inside the top five in the league in six of the last seven seasons under Bowles. They currently have the second-best rushing defense in the league.
Tampa Bay’s passing defense hasn’t fared as well under Bowles. The Bucs’ passing defense has ranked outside the top 20 in six of Bowles’ seven seasons.
That style doesn’t fare well late in games, when teams are forced to air the ball out to take control or get back into games. Bowles’ defensive philosophy has played a big part in why the Bucs have struggled to hold leads late in games.
The Last Word
The future of Bowles as Tampa Bay’s head coach looks grim at best.
Going 3-9 in a 12-game stretch of one-score games is likely to be what ultimately leads to Bowles’ downfall.
And while you can point to some bad luck, there is no denying that Bowles’ teams have stylistic issues that prevent them from winning close games at a high rate. Players on the field have come and gone, but the struggles to win nail-biters have been a constant over more than four seasons.
One thing is for sure: The struggles in close games have made for some agonizing Sundays for Tampa Bay fans. And if Bowles is to put together a winning streak to get the Bucs back into the NFC South race and save his job, his team will have to flip the script in close contests.
And right now, that seems extremely unlikely.
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Main Photo Courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel – Imagn Images