Donald Trump’s shock decision over the weekend to place firm support behind Vladimir Putin while berating Volodymyr Zelensky has left Ukraine’s European allies scrambling.
The “energy ceasefire” the White House announced over the weekend would in theory be a positive development, if it led to Russia halting its attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
However, as we have already seen, that ceasefire may not have been worth the pixels with which it was published on social media – Zelensky has already accused the Russians of violating the agreement and striking a Ukrainian thermal power plant in the critical city of Kharkiv in the country’s east.
Trump has meanwhile announced a deal to import Russian diesel into the US, while blaming Ukrainian strikes on the country’s oil refineries for rising fuel prices.
Allies are concerned that the ceasefire announcement is little more than a trap for Ukraine, where Russia continues its attacks while any proportionate response from Kyiv will result in Ukraine being blamed by Trump for breaking its word and ultimately adding to the global energy crisis that the US President sought to solve.
Speaking to Sky News on Sunday, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said that Britain’s main role now was to “try and bring our friends back together” and get the Americans back onside – whatever that means at this point in the war.
Trump hurling abuse at Ukraine while lifting sanctions on Russia is an unhelpful development for Kyiv. One of the biggest fears Westerners have as winter rolls around is that Ukraine will suffer electricity blackouts and limited heating, hammering morale and resolve.
Reports have also emerged that Trump is threatening to pull out of the Purl (Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List) scheme – under which Europeans buy weapons from American stockpiles for Ukraine – and cut off intelligence that aids Ukraine with deep strikes in Russia, unless it stops hitting the nation’s energy networks. This could be devastating.
It is therefore understandable that Streeting and his European counterparts want to act as a bridge between Kyiv and Washington DC, to keep Trump in the room and get things on a more level footing as quickly as possible. But Trump’s latest acts of vengeance against Ukraine’s President, egregious even by his standards, should give Europeans pause and force them to ask the question: at what cost?
Even the most generous reading of Trump’s Ukraine policy since taking office is a damning story of America shaping the world to the advantage of Putin. Russian attacks have escalated, while the US government has committed zero new dollars to Ukraine’s defence. Indeed, Europeans have picked up the tab in America’s absence. Even in the last few weeks, billions of fresh euros have been committed to the war effort, with more to come.
Trump still has the power to do enormous damage to the Ukrainian war effort, either by withdrawing US support or simply by throwing further diplomatic support behind Russia. But the conflict no longer rests as heavily on the whims of the US President as it did when he first returned to office.
Europe has got its act together in the last two years. Through financial aid, military aid, more credible investment in its own defence and broad solidarity for Ukraine, it is no longer a bystander in this conflict. Both the EU and the so-called European pillar of Nato have taken greater responsibility for continental security.
With initiatives like the Joint Expeditionary Force, a 10-nation partnership that can act without US approval in responding to threats in Europe’s north, and the Coalition of the Willing, an alliance that pledges support for Ukraine ranging from cash to potential peacekeeping troops, Europe has levels of autonomy that previously didn’t exist in any meaningful way.
The past few weeks, in which Russia has used increasingly powerful jet-powered drones to strike strategic and civilian targets in Ukraine, have heightened fears of the bleakest winter since the start of the conflict.
European security officials privately talk about their concerns that “Ukraine fatigue” might finally set in, as an energy crisis and Ukraine’s dwindling air defences change the game and dovetail with other diplomatic priorities. What will Trump’s America look like post-midterms? What will the European political landscape look like following critical elections in Germany and France – when pro-Kremlin populists look set to win power and influence?
However, such knee-jerk reactions might be needlessly pessimistic. The recent troubles Ukraine has faced come off the back of months where deep strikes and territorial gains had given Kyiv’s allies reason for hope.
“It feels like the narrative flips between the cup not being half full or half empty, but 80 per cent full or 80 per cent empty,” said a European security official last week. “In reality the margins are a lot finer and things don’t change that quickly.”
Ukraine has already adapted, for example by using new automated turret guns to shoot down jet-powered drones last week. More innovations will come.
And America may yet assist. On Monday, Nato’s top commander warned Russia that his forces would destroy “anything and everything” involved in any attack if Moscow were “foolish enough” to target alliance territory. “We will stop the attack and deny them the ability to achieve their objectives, whatever those might be,” said US General Alexus Grynkewich, Nato’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe. “We will, in short, ensure any attack, against any ally, proves utterly futile.”
“No one should question the commitment of the United States to this alliance,” he added.
As for Europe, it is only powerless in this conflict if it chooses to be so; it has come a long way since 2022. What is now critical is that the continent does not break in its resolve to maintain its support for Ukraine and find ways to go further. America is important, but it is not everything. Keeping Trump inside the tent is helpful, but his value to Ukraine and Europe has proven time and again to be limited and often absent.
The idea that America is the only power that can broker peace in Ukraine is an outdated cliche that wilfully ignores the leaps Europe has made. There are plenty in Ukraine who see Europe as their most important ally. Europe can continue to play this role, provided it doesn’t go into meltdown every time Trump does what he does best – sow chaos.