Georgia's Senate and governor races test Trump's political influence

President Donald Trump on Friday will return to Georgia -- a key battleground state in the upcoming and high-stakes midterm elections -- to hold a midterm rally in Dalton.

The state has closely watched Senate and gubernatorial races this year, with GOP Senate candidate and current Rep. Mike Collins trying to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, while businessman and GOP candidate Rick Jackson faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the race for governor.

The president plays a significant role in both of these races, with Georgia Democrats working to tie their Republican opponents to Trump's unpopularity and policies on the economy and war with Iran.

The Republican nominees for Senate and governor have employed diverging strategies on how to deal with Trump. Collins has leaned into his ties to the president in hope of turning out Georgia’s MAGA base, and Jackson has distanced himself from Trump to appeal to the moderate coalition that propelled current Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp to victory.

ABC News ranks the Senate race in Georgia as likely Democrat and the gubernatorial race as a toss-up.

Senate race

Collins has stuck by Trump in a political bet that drawing out Georgia's MAGA base will give him his best shot at winning in November.

During his debates against Ossoff, Collins dodged questions on the Iran war and Trump's tariff policy -- issues that remain unpopular with many Americans because they have driven up the cost of goods and gas. A recent Fox News poll found that majorities of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling tariffs (69%) and about 6 in 10 (59%) oppose U.S. military action against Iran.

When he was asked in the first debate if he would defend the Iran war, Collins said that Trump "had every right to go in there and make sure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon."

Pressed on high diesel prices tied to the Iran war in the second debate, Collins said that "diesel prices are high. Diesel price is high. The supply is coming. The supply is coming now, and the prices will continue to come down."

At this time last year, the Georgia Senate race was the election to watch, with Republicans hoping to flip the Senate seat held by Jon Ossoff, the only Senate Democrat up for reelection this year in a state that Trump won in 2024. But over the past year, Collins' missteps, closeness to Trump, and a political environment shaped by affordability and the Iran war have left Democrats confident Ossoff will face minimal challenges in his reelection bid.

The major Democratic PAC supporting Senate candidates pulled advertising funding from the race as it pours its funds into what it sees as other opportunities in red states -- sending a vote of confidence to Ossoff, who also continues to dominate in fundraising, according to a report in the Washington Examiner earlier this week. Ossoff announced he raised $33 million in the third quarter of the year, according to Federal Election Commission data.

Collins confirmed he would be attending Trump's rally in Georgia on Friday, writing on social media that he was excited to welcome the president back to Georgia. Trump last campaigned in Georgia on July 22.

Governor race

After campaigning to be "Trump's favorite governor" during the Republican primary, Jackson, a billionaire health executive and political newcomer, didn't mention Trump's name once in his debate earlier this month against Bottoms. When Bottoms tried to tie Jackson to the president, Jackson instead aligned himself with popular two-term Gov. Kemp.

"Let me tell you something. I don't owe anybody anything. Nobody's ever told me what to do. My No. 1 priority is Georgians. It's you. And I will stand up to anybody, just like Brian Kemp has done. He works with both parties, both presidents and he stands up when he disagrees,” Jackson said in the debate.

Though Trump initially endorsed Jackson's opponent, Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the Republican primary and runoff. The president endorsed Jackson when he became the nominee, and the two appeared together onstage during Trump’s July visit to Marietta, Georgia.

Jackson will attend Trump's rally on Friday.

Jackson has spent more than $100 million on his gubernatorial race, massively outspending Bottoms as she works to make the election a referendum on Trump and high costs. History is not on Bottoms' side: Georgia hasn't elected a Democrat for governor since 1998.