Florida is becoming one of the bigger enigmas of the already-puzzling 2026 election season. Democrats are showing themselves to be surprisingly competitive. Democrat David Jolly is running neck-and-neck with Trump-approved Republican Byron Donalds in two of three recent polls for the governor job.
And Jacksonville legislator and DSA member Angie Nixon, having upset moderate Democrat Alex Vindman in the primary, now is at least keeping it close against Republican incumbent Ashley Moody. All of which is startling in a state that went for Donald Trump by 13 points just two years ago and hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1994.
Now Nixon is turning up the heat on Republican candidates.
On an upcoming episode of Crooked Media’s YouTube show Long Play, Nixon lets it fly against the Republican gubernatorial candidate. “Byron Donalds doesn’t support Black people,” she tells hosts Jennifer Palmieri and Errin Haines on camera in an early cut of the episode, which debuts Monday. Haines then follows up by asking Nixon to explain what she means when she says that Donalds is “going to bring back the worst parts of our history.” Nixon replies, “I mean, he is someone who said that Black people were better off during the Jim Crow era.”
The race has grown contentious but seems to be reaching a new level of fervor as it heads into the final two weeks.
Nixon has said at rallies that she wants to keep funding the police, referring to a common anti-DSA knock, because she wants Moody, Ron DeSantis and Trump locked up. For his part, vice president J.D. Vance said recently at a rally, addressing Nixon, “Get the hell out of here, you don’t belong in America.” (Nixon in the episode: “They don’t have anything to run on but cruelty.”)
Meanwhile, Donalds has been criticized by Jolly for not extending leniency to young people that he was shown when he was arrested on drug charges as a young man and given the opportunity of a diversion program; a hot-button new ad has a retired U.S. General calling Donalds “weak” and a “hypocrite” for it. (Palmieri and Haines discuss the ad in the new episode.)
Launched earlier this year, Long Play examines the divisions and shifting political alignments in various Southern states. After concluding its first season with trips to Georgia, Texas and other Southern states, the show kicks off its second season ahead of the midterms with a Florida episode.
Five flagship and three bonus episodes are planned, straddling both sides of the midterms and set in Texas and Georgia, where close Senate races are unfolding, among other states. The overall goal remains to recalibrate perceptions of the region as a GOP stronghold, which principals say is far too simplistic and out of date.
In Florida, Donalds has looked to court the Black vote to gain the governorship. “You’ve been faithful to that [Democratic] party, have they been faithful to you?,” he recently told an audience at HBCU Florida A&M. Donalds would be Florida’s first Black governor, though has struggled to gain support of large numbers of Black voters, even losing 17 counties in August’s primary to white opponents.
As for the Senate, flipping a Florida seat blue (the seat Nixon is seeking is currently held by Moody, who was appointed two years ago when Marco Rubio was named Secretary of State), is a nice-to-have for Florida Democrats but not seen as essential in retaking control of the Senate.
Nixon says on the show that she thinks a win for her is viable. “So, honestly, there’s a whole bunch of polls,” says Nixon, as she seeks to become both the first Black senator and first female Democratic Senator in Florida’s history. “There are some ranging from tied to seven points. Recently, one was two, I was two points down, like, yesterday. And so the only poll that matters is the Election Day poll.”
In an email, Palmieri said that “My takeaway is neither party can ever write off Florida. It’s too big, too dynamic to take for granted…any outcome is possible.” Added Haines: “The 2026 midterm cycle has been unpredictable — and Florida is arguably one of the biggest examples of that unpredictability.”
Palmieri, a former Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama comms exec who also cohosted Showtime staple The Circus, and Haines, editor-at-large for The 19th, co-host the show with contributions from former NOLA mayor Mitch Landrieu. Crooked Media fixture Jon Favreau exec produces. A companion podcast will also be released.