During the third day of Building Bridges ‘26 the Social Sciences Plenary Session, chaired by Björn Wittrock, political scientist Stein Kuhnle asked a deceptively simple question: can the welfare state survive? He began with Peter Flora’s 1986 claim that the modern welfare state is a European invention. Definitions vary widely, and social and welfare policies have been introduced with different motivations in both democratic and authoritarian states. Over time and across different contexts, those motivations expanded: social stability, social rights, social justice, class compromise, economic productivity, gender equality, work and family, and equalizing life chances.
Kuhnle stressed that while innovation is often discussed, the innovation of social policies themselves deserves attention. Examples include universal education, social insurance for industrial workers, unemployment insurance, pension systems, health services, and paid parental leave.
Since the modern welfare state took off in Europe, a variety of welfare-state regimes have emerged. The 1990 book The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism marked a breakthrough in the historical study of the welfare state, identifying conservative, liberal, and social-democratic models. Before that work, the field was largely dominated by Western scholars; afterward, it became global. Distinct model labels attracted growing attention because of expanding humanities and social-science interest, concern with social and economic inequalities, demographic interest, the impact of international economic and political development, and the spread of social and welfare policies worldwide.
From 1945 to 1975, Europe experienced the golden age of the welfare state. Then crisis became the focal point. Many books announced the end of the welfare state, while one published in 2000 examined its survival. By 2024, Who’s Afraid of the Welfare State Now? reflected a different moment. Public social spending is rising across OECD countries: comparing 1985 and 2020, it grew from 16 per cent to 23.3 per cent—an indication of states’ continued commitment to providing social welfare.
Yet persistent challenges remain. Demographic and socio-structural change always require constant reconstruction work on the welfare state. International business cycles, geopolitics, and international security issues continuously affect prospects for national welfare-state development. Recent years have accumulated new crises: COVID, wars, refugees, supply-chain disruptions, food and energy insecurity, inflation, climate change, and geopolitical polarization.
‘Demographic and socio-structural change always require constant reconstruction work on the welfare state’
Kuhnle framed sustainability through three dimensions. Economically, demographic changes include declining fertility, ageing populations, shrinking proportions of taxpayers, increasing dependency ratios, greater demand for services for older people, and a high degree of international economic interdependence. Politically, there is greater focus on security issues of all kinds, increasing social inequality, and the risk of weakening confidence in governments. Morally, the question is whether social solidarity—at national or international level—can be maintained amid considerable economic and political insecurity, rising inequality, rapid labour-market changes, and likely more heterogeneous populations.
Policy solutions were outlined at several levels. Nationally, these include pension reforms, reducing the generosity of some social policies, creating incentives for increased employment among older people, and increasing productivity. In Europe, an EU agreement on a minimum VAT rate of 15 per cent aims to avoid a race to the bottom. Globally, an OECD global minimum corporate tax of 15 per cent has been supported by 140 nations worldwide.
The lecture left the audience with a tension rather than a simple answer: social spending is rising, but so are the pressures on the welfare state. Its survival may depend less on whether it is affordable in principle than on whether it can remain economically, politically, and morally sustainable in a world of overlapping crises.
More from the conference:
The post Rising Spending, Persistent Crises: Can the Welfare State Survive? appeared first on Hungarian Conservative.