Jags QB Lawrence finally hitting lofty heights expected from No 1 pick

When the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, they were looking for a franchise saviour.

The Jags were coming off a 1-15 season, and an astonishing 11 losing campaigns out of the previous 13. They are one of just four teams in the NFL to have never played in a Super Bowl.

Conversely, Lawrence arrived having won 34 of his 36 games in college and 52 of 54 in high school. He was supposed to bring those wins to Florida.

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Safe to say, that did not happen. As a rookie, he was thrown right in and lost more games in five weeks than he had in five years.

The Urban Meyer head coaching experiment was a disaster and Jacksonville managed just three wins that year.

Lawrence and the Jags' campaigns in the subsequent three years under Meyer's replacement Doug Pederson were a mixed bag that included a playoff win, but ultimately a 4-13 season saw Pederson fired.

Enter Liam Coen, longtime NFL quarterback coach and offensive coordinator who was poached from Tampa Bay in January 2025. Coen's arrival, and Lawrence's development during his tenure, have put the 27-year-old in the mix for NFL MVP and the Jags up there as Super Bowl contenders.

What do the numbers say?

Since the start of last season, the Jaguars have won 17 games out of 22, tied for the best regular-season record in the league. Despite a heart-breaking final-minute defeat to Buffalo in the postseason, year one for Coen ended with the second-best record for the Jags in franchise history (13-4).

Lawrence's ascension was a large part of that, but he may be getting even better - and the 4-1 Jags have started out hot.

Last year, he offered the volume, but not the efficiency. He finished sixth in passing yards (4,007) and fifth in touchdowns (29), but only 28th in completion percentage (60.9), 20th in quarterback rating (91.0) and 16th in yards per attempt (7.2). He was an MVP finalist.

This season, he is playing at a higher level - and getting the ball downfield. After five games, Lawrence is fourth in quarterback rating (106.3), eighth in completion percentage (67.1), and fifth in yards per attempt (8.2) along with 1,174 yards (14th) and 10 TDs (tied fifth).

What has actually changed?

Sam Darnold. Jared Goff. Baker Mayfield. There are plenty of examples of high quarterback draft picks who struggled for large parts of their careers before finding success in the right situation. The expectation is that everything will click immediately, but that is simply not the reality for most QBs.

If you're the best in college, you're most likely joining the worst teams in the professional game, and it can take years for the stars to align.

Through the early period of Lawrence's NFL career, it would be no surprise for NFL RedZone's coverage to turn to Jacksonville and show a quarterback running for his life. You would see him scrambling around to avoid pressure, throwing from awkward positions... playing 'hero ball', essentially.

Now, watch Lawrence and you'll see cool, calm, composed and importantly, assured. He knows where his feet should be, where his eyes should look and where his teammates will be at any given time. Coen has been crucial in helping Lawrence find a rhythm.

Look no further than Lawrence's stunning fourth-down throw to Parker Washington against the Eagles on Sunday. Feet, eyes, timing... touchdown.

Lawrence was slicing and dicing, dinking and dunking his way to 331 yards against Philadelphia, and it's becoming a common occurrence.

The supporting cast

Lawrence has not been blessed with an 'alpha' receiver so far in his career. No disrespect to Marvin Jones, Christian Kirk, or Calvin Ridley but these aren't names you'd want to provide an elite quarterback. Brian Thomas Jr had an instant impact as a rookie in 2024 but has since dropped off, giving way to last season's top option: Washington.

In the 24-year-old, the Jaguars have found a gem. Sixth-round picks don't usually make too much of an impact, let alone develop into a team's top target by their fourth year.

Washington's one-handed grab in London showed the trust Lawrence has in him. According to ESPN, since Week 11 of last season, Washington has 17 catches for a league-best 381 yards on third and fourth downs. He was Lawrence's top target by a clear distance in that lone playoff game last year.

Lawrence is tremendous at spreading the ball around to multiple receivers, but Washington tops the team with 22 catches, 352 yards and four TDs so far this campaign after doing the same last year (58-847-5). Don't be surprised to see more games like last Sunday (6-124-2).

It would be an oversight not to mention Jacksonville's improved defense at this point. Since Coen took over and brought defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile with him, the Jaguars have only allowed 18.5 points per game, behind only Seattle and Minnesota. This year, that number is 14.0 with only the Vikings (12.8) performing better.

They will be crucial for the Jags to make a deep run this season.

What comes next?

The Jaguars continue their London visit this Sunday, facing the desperation-mode Houston Texans at Wembley, live on Sky Sports. Houston started 0-4 but won last week and need a victory to keep their season alive.

The game is one of four divisional games for Jacksonville in their next six. If we are talking about a serious contender, this is a chance for Lawrence and company to show their credentials.

If you ask someone who their Super Bowl favourite is this season, they are most likely to say the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs or Seattle Seahawks. How long before the Jaguars are one of the first teams mentioned?

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