For the first time in three weeks, Wisconsin is returning to Camp Randall for a showdown under the lights with No. 16 USC. Following a performance at UCLA that was less than encouraging, this is a major opportunity for the Badgers to make a statement.
In order to do so, Wisconsin will need to overcome talent deficits at a number of positions. Here are three key matchups in the game that I view as pivotal.
Jayden Maiava versus Wisconsin’s secondary
At this point, you know what you’re going to get from Wisconsin’s front seven. Against UCLA last week, it once again did its thing, limiting Wayne Knight to 23 yards on 13 carries. That wasn’t the issue defensively.
The defense was fine at the Rose Bowl, but if there was a bone to pick, it was in the secondary. Ty Dieffenbach didn’t look particularly dominant, but it felt like in timely situations, his receivers were finding soft spots in Wisconsin’s zone.
Dieffenbach’s 264 passing yards isn’t a mind-blowing number, but for a backup quarterback, he was too comfortable.
Maiava enters the matchup with 2,045 yards, 18 touchdowns and just three interceptions on the season. The preseason Heisman candidate has surpassed 300 yards through the air three times this season. He has added two touchdowns on the ground, but he’s not a major threat with his legs.
Lincoln Riley’s teams are always going to be explosive offensively, and this USC squad is no exception. That identity runs through Maiava this season. There’s a good chance he drops back to pass at least 30 times Saturday night, especially with Wisconsin’s secondary coming off a shaky performance.
Not only does the secondary need to play better, with the question marks surrounding the Badgers’ offense, forcing a Maiava mistake and creating a turnover may also be necessary for a victory.
Colton Joseph versus the USC front seven
Joseph is going to look to run on Saturday, that much is certain. He’s been up-and-down as a passer, and USC is going to try to make him beat them through the air. If Joseph can be effective as a runner however, forcing the Trojans to use an extra defender against his running ability, he’ll free some things up down the field.
Luke Wafle is a name to watch for USC in this department. The true freshman defensive end has 19 tackles on the season, recording a sack in each of the Trojans’ last two games. With Jeff Grimes using a heavy dose of options for Joseph to hand off or keep it himself, his ability to read whether Wafle off the edge will be important.
Beyond Wafle, Joseph may see a quarterback spy as well as varying looks of a loaded box. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where USC doesn’t essentially dare the Badger quarterback to throw. That said, Joseph will need to be careful to not throw into tight windows across the middle, but more importantly, to get things going on the ground, make the first man miss.
Luke Fickell wants Joseph in open space, Riley wants to avoid that. In most of my preview pieces, I’ve discussed Joseph avoiding disaster at the hands of the secondary, but for him to bounce back this week, I think reading the front seven in the ground game and breaking tackles will be most important for him.
He’s hit-or-miss as a passer, but if he can dominate on the ground, throws become much easier.
Luke Fickell versus the flow of the game
Fans have critiqued Fickell’s game management dating back to his time at Cincinnati. Following a decision to punt on fourth-and-short around midfield early last week, followed by the late punt that all but waved the white flag, it’s been a major talking point throughout the week.
This isn't meant to be a shot at Fickell, I just think he'll need to be more aggressive on Saturday to win. He took the conservative approach last week, wanting to make a backup-quarterback led offense play with a long field. All things considered, it backfired, as points proved hard to come by and UCLA was able to manage a couple long scoring drives.
I’m curious to see what approach Fickell takes this weekend. To start off, I have to imagine that the Maiava-led offense is viewed as more likely to sustain long drives than the Bruins’. The main thing, however, is I don’t think this is a game you can win without scoring points and taking chances to do so.
Mike Tressel’s defense has had some inspiring performances against ranked teams, turning games into rock fights, but I wouldn’t count on that becoming the case, therefore, the Badgers will need to score.
Against a good offense, with a shaky offense of his own, I don’t think a conservative approach will help create an upset. Fickell doesn’t need to be going for fourth downs in his own territory, but in scenarios such as a long field goal versus a fourth-and-manageable, I think he needs to go.
We’ll learn how Fickell approaches this game on Saturday night, but because of his decisions a week ago, this feels like a relevant talking point and one that will have a major impact.
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