As the Royals begin preparations for the offseason, they won't have to worry about their shortstop as Bobby Witt Jr. continues to be one of the most valuable players in the American League. Despite having another good season, it was a season for BWJ where the surface and underlying numbers never lined up, because if they did he would have more than likely been the AL MVP.
In 2026, BWJ slashed .281/.359/.441 for an OPS of .800 and a wRC+ of 119. On the surface, those are very pedestrian numbers for BWJ, but once we dive a little deeper the season BWJ had was just a bit weird.
Surface Level Numbers Don't Tell the Whole Story
2026 was a season that saw BWJ's overall profile change very little as he was still elite in most categories. The biggest change for him came in his walk rate as he put together a career best 10.6% walk rate. His batted ball profile saw little change from 2025 to 2026, and the biggest changes in his plate discipline profile were he swung a little less, mainly due to the fact he saw 44.4% of pitches in the strike zone.
He also didn't regress in terms of the expected numbers, hard hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity. For most of those, he still ranked in the 90th or better percentile in the expected numbers, hard hit rate, and average exit velo, while still maintaining a 76th percentile barrel rate. In fact, looking at his Savant page, he pretty much stayed in the same percentiles across the board, while improving his walk rate. His ISO took a dip to .159 despite having this profile and he really didn't get the power going consistently.
BWJ 2026 boils down to the expected results never truly lining up with the actual results. His expected batting average was .302 (100th percentile), expected slugging was .504 (96th percentile), and xwOBA was .378 (96th percentile). Now, expected results aren't the end all be all, but the correct process was always in place for him in 2026. He hit the ball hard and often, drew more walks than usual, and not much in his profile changed. The only thing that didn't go right was the final result.
It is hard to explain this season for BWJ, because it seemed like things didn't go his way as much as it should based on the profile, but he also wasn't unlucky with his .320 BABIP. Either way, the results are the results and he put together an offensive season comparable to his 2023 season while still putting up a 7.0 fWAR.
Despite the Offense, BWJ Still Flashes the Leather and Speed
While the offense was a bit odd for BWJ, he continued playing at a Platinum Glove level at shortstop. He had 24 OAA, 17 FRV, and 8 DRS. All of those numbers are well in line with his 2025 season, and his 8 DRS are a career high. The defense has not been a big question for him since his rookie season and he continued his Gold Glove form. He should be getting his third gold glove this season.
On the basepaths, BWJ put together his most efficient base stealing season swiping 45 bags in 53 attempts (85% success rate). Those 45 stolen bases are also the second most in his career, he had 49 in 2023, after not having 40+ in back-to-back seasons.
Conclusion
It was overall a great season for BWJ as he continues to be a staple in Major League Baseball, but his season just has that tinge of weirdness where the final results, offensively, don't make a ton of sense given the profile he had. He still continued his Platinum Glove caliber defense while also being a menace on the base paths, and the Royals will need that going into 2027. The offense should regress to the mean for BWJ next season (aka, more closely reflect his profile).
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