As Russia-Ukraine war changes, Zelenskyy could be 'losing a strong partner'

From his apartment in Kyiv, Yuriy Sak's attempts to give this interview are interrupted by constant pings on his phone.

They're alerting the former advisor to Ukraine's defence minister another barrage of Russian drones and missiles are on their way.

"It's a new reality we're living in," Mr Sak says, gesturing to an attack visible from outside his window.

It was mid-morning when the ABC spoke to Mr Sak, and he'd already been subjected to several air-raid alarms.

The previous evening, he boarded an overnight train to Kyiv from western Ukraine. At 3am, he says, the carriages ground to a halt and all passengers (including mothers with sleeping babies in their arms) were evacuated to a nearby field, because of an incoming swarm of drones.

With territorial gains on the front lines almost non-existent, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has taken on a different complexion lately.

Moscow's offensive, in its fifth year, has turned its attention to its neighbour's skies.

Since the spring, Russia has intensified aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities, striking civilian targets and critical infrastructure.

Analysts contend the Kremlin is attempting to exploit Ukraine's stretched air defences (it is running particularly short on the US-manufactured Patriot missile interceptors) in an attempt to make life unbearable for people there and pressure the country into accepting its maximalist demands for peace.

Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, a former commander general in Europe for the US Army, told the ABC "strategic bombing" like this "never achieves decisive effect".

"The allies did it against Germany and Japan in World War II. The US did it against North Vietnam and North Korea. The Germans tried it against Great Britain in World War II. It didn't work," he said.

"The populations don't quit. But that's what the Russians are trying to do now."

Starlink speed issue sparks concern

In the past two months, Russia has unleashed improved jet-powered drones on its neighbour.

Some of the latest models can fly at speeds of up to 600 kilometres per hour, making them significantly more difficult to intercept than the first versions that appeared last year.

"Your human eye cannot detect them," Mr Sak said, adding soldiers often end up "randomly shooting in the sky, hoping that one of the bullets will accidentally, randomly hit the drone".

Mr Sak said Ukraine's jet-powered drone interception rate had improved to about 80 per cent in the past month.

But last week, there were unexpected issues.

Overnight into October 14, the speed at which Elon Musk's Starshield internet terminals (the military version of Starlink) could move was capped without warning, according to Ukrainian officials. When they reached speeds of more than 160km/h, connectivity began dropping out.

Ukraine relies on the technology to guide its attack drones and interceptors, and the new cap caused problems.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also accused his country's "partners" of failing to share intelligence about incoming Russian ballistic missile attacks during this period. 

Kyiv relies on US intelligence to detect incoming missile attacks. US President Donald Trump has denied his country stopped sending information to Ukraine.

On Sunday, Mr Zelenskyy said intelligence-sharing had been interrupted but later "de-blocked".

"We are very thankful for this. Now it works," he told American broadcaster NBC.

Analysts have questioned whether last week's changes that took Ukraine by surprise could have been the White House flexing its muscles.

"I think this was a way of hinting to Ukraine, look guys, if you don't become more agreeable, this is what awaits you … we can pull the plug and you're stuffed," Mr Sak said.

Are the cracks in Ukraine's alliance with Washington that have appeared since Mr Trump re-entered the White House widening?

For his part, Mr Musk denied any involvement in the Starshield changes.

He said any decision to restrict access was not his, because limits on speed and usage are decided by the US military and ultimately the US president.

On Saturday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said no-one at the White House ordered the speed to be throttled. 

Zelenskyy says 'we are losing a strong partner'

This year, Kyiv has targeted Russian oil facilities with its drones and missiles, in a bid to hurt the country's economy by torching its largest export, and make life difficult for civilians there.

Ukraine's government describes this as "long-range sanctions" and the tactic has been effective. Last week, Donald Trump demanded they stop doing it, as part of an "energy ceasefire".

Mr Trump announced the ceasefire on October 11, although Ukraine said it knew nothing of the deal.

Mr Trump claims Ukraine's strikes have been pushing up global oil prices, although experts contend the largest rises are actually linked to the US president's war with Iran.

"Ukrainians have the capability now to reach a refinery that is 3,000 kilometres from Ukraine. That's incredible," General Hodges said.

In a significant departure from US foreign policy since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Mr Trump this month announced the US would start buying Russian diesel, something that had been banned by the previous White House administration.

Experts argue the controversial deal is designed to bring petrol prices in the US down ahead of the mid-term elections next month. Polls predict Mr Trump's Republican Party could face a backlash at the ballot box.

Mr Trump said his decision to waive sanctions on Russia was an effort to keep President Vladimir Putin at the negotiating table.

In yet another sign of how relations between Ukraine and the US are deteriorating, Mr Zelenskyy last week gave interviews to Piers Morgan and Britain's Financial Times newspaper, in which he directly criticised Mr Trump.

The usual praise for the US president was gone as the wartime leader labelled his counterpart's recent behaviour a betrayal and raised questions over America's long-term support for Kyiv.

When Morgan asked Mr Zelenskyy, in an interview published on the broadcaster's YouTube channel, whether he felt "betrayed" by Mr Trump, Ukraine's president answered: "Really, yes. Really, between us."

With regard to the US-Ukraine alliance, Mr Zelenskyy said: "It's a pity we are losing a strong partner."

Last week, Mr Trump told US media outlet Newsmax the Ukrainian leader was "more difficult to deal with than Putin".

He also claimed that ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure were "a disgrace", although he did not mention that Moscow had also been trying to strike its neighbour's energy targets.

On Sunday, Mr Zelenskyy told NBC he hoped Mr Trump would change his decisions.

"If the ‌United States will officially take the side of Russia … we will not prevail and we will not be able to stand," he said.