Can Middle Corridor Deliver on Its Promise?

The Astana Times provides news and information from Kazakhstan and around the world.

ASTANA – The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), widely known as the Middle Corridor, has evolved from a regional transport initiative into a strategic Eurasian trade route. Its long-term success, however, will depend on whether Kazakhstan and its partners can turn infrastructure investment and political momentum into a reliable, commercially viable and integrated logistics network.

The Middle Corridor enters a new phase

The TITR is a multimodal route connecting China and Central Asia with the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, Türkiye and European markets. Cargo traveling west from China crosses Kazakhstan by rail, reaches the Caspian ports of Aktau or Kuryk, continues by sea to Azerbaijan and then moves through Georgia and Türkiye.

The route began taking shape in 2013-2014, when Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia established a coordination mechanism to develop it. The TITR International Association was established in 2017 to strengthen competitiveness, develop infrastructure, reduce administrative barriers and coordinate transport processes and tariffs.

Renewed demand for alternative Eurasian supply chains, combined with investment in railway and port infrastructure, has accelerated the corridor’s development.

“The Middle Corridor is really maturing politically faster than it is maturing operationally,” said Assylbek Nurgabdeshov, assistant professor of strategy and director of Strategy Postgraduate Programs at Edinburgh Business School, Heriot-Watt University, during a Sept. 15 webinar on the corridor. 

The question is now whether the route can become reliable enough for companies to build long-term supply chains around it.

What has been achieved?

Cargo volumes demonstrate growing demand. According to Kazakhstan’s official data, freight volumes along the TITR reached 2.76 million tons in 2023, up 65% from 1.7 million tons in 2022. In 2024, the volume increased to 4.5 million tons, up 62% year on year, while container traffic grew 2.7 times to 56,500 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). In 2025, freight volumes stood at 4.1 million tons, down 8.9% from 2024, while container traffic increased 36% to 77,000 TEU.

The figures show that while total freight volume declined slightly in 2025, container traffic continued to grow, suggesting a shift in the composition of cargo moving along the route.

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport puts the corridor’s capacity at around six million tons and up to 182,000 containers annually.

Kazakhstan expands the physical backbone

Kazakhstan occupies a central position because cargo traveling between China and the Caspian Sea must cross its territory.

The country is therefore investing across the transport chain. At Kuryk, berth modernization is under way, alongside the Sarzha grain terminal being developed with Abu Dhabi Ports and the Ersai container terminal. At Aktau, the container hub developed with China’s Lianyungang Port is complete.

Dredging at Kuryk is complete, while similar work at Aktau is planned for this year.

Further upgrades at Aktau are being supported by international financing. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is providing a 35 million euro (US$40 million) loan to reconstruct berths No. 3 and No. 12 and acquire two weather-resilient ship-to-shore cranes. The project is also expected to receive an EU grant of up to 10 million euros (US$11.4 million).

Railway capacity is also being expanded.

In February, the World Bank approved an $846 million guarantee to mobilize $1.41 billion in long-term commercial financing for Kazakhstan’s Middle Corridor rail infrastructure. The project includes construction of a 322.3-kilometer railway line between Moiynty and Kyzylzhar. It is expected to shorten the route by 149 kilometers, relieve congestion and enable double-stack container operations.

The project is expected to support the World Bank’s broader objective of tripling freight volumes and halving end-to-end transit times along the Middle Corridor by 2030.

Transit times become shorter 

One of the clearest indicators of progress is the reduction in delivery times.

According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport, delivery times along the TITR have fallen from 38 days to 13-17 days. The current target is a stable 10-12 days from China to ports in Georgia and Türkiye.

Digitalization is supporting that effort. The Digital Trade Corridor platform has been integrated with the railway systems of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia, enabling online cargo monitoring and contracts through a single-window mechanism.

Its Tez Customs (fast customs) module provides paperless processing of transit customs procedures. The ministry reports that customs processing time has fallen from eight hours to 30 minutes.

But not all bottlenecks are physical.

Speaking at a Sept. 15 webinar on the Middle Corridor, Nurgabdeshov identifies three broad categories: physical, operational and coordination bottlenecks. These include limited port and ferry capacity, multiple border crossings, different railway and customs systems, repeated cargo handling and insufficient digital integration.

The biggest bottleneck may be coordination

“The Middle Corridor crosses several countries and involves multiple railway operators, ports, customs authorities and logistics companies. A delay at one point can undermine the performance of the entire route,” Nurgabdeshov told The Astana Times.

The corridor’s efficiency therefore depends not only on individual infrastructure projects but on how effectively they connect.

“The key is to manage the Middle Corridor as one connected system rather than a series of separate national routes,” he said.

Countries are already working toward this. In 2023, railway operators from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia established the Middle Corridor Multimodal consortium. According to the Ministry of Transport, China Railway Container Transport joined in January.

The consortium is intended to coordinate tariffs and schedules, integrate cargo-tracking systems and electronic documentation, and develop common technical and customs procedures.

Kazakhstan is also working with Azerbaijan on an intergovernmental agreement on the TITR, including commitments on corridor capacity, port services and long-term through tariffs.

For businesses, however, the ultimate measure is predictability.

“Companies do not necessarily need it to be the cheapest or fastest route every time. What they need is predictability: knowing how long transportation will take, how much it will cost, and whether their goods will arrive on time,” Nurgabdeshov said.

This makes the 10-12-day target particularly important. As volumes grow, the corridor will need to demonstrate that it can maintain consistent performance rather than simply achieve shorter transit times under favorable conditions.

Balancing cargo flows

Another challenge is the imbalance between westbound and eastbound cargo. During the webinar, Arzu Abbasova, a research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute’s Center for Finance and Security, noted that relatively little cargo currently moves from Europe back to China, meaning some trains and trucks return partially or completely empty.

More balanced trade flows would improve the route’s economics. The Middle Corridor could also become more than a transit route for Chinese goods. Greater regional trade, warehousing, processing and manufacturing could allow countries along the route to capture more value from the corridor.

The World Bank similarly says that the Middle Corridor should be viewed as a regional trade corridor, not only as a bridge between China and Europe.

The Caspian link

The Caspian Sea remains one of the corridor’s critical links because cargo must be transferred between rail, maritime and road transport.

Kazakhstan is expanding its maritime capacity. New container vessels are being developed, while the country is also considering high-capacity railway ferries that could reduce cargo-handling times and increase delivery speeds along the route.

At the same time, Nurgabdeshov said that infrastructure planning must account for declining Caspian Sea levels, which could affect port access, dredging requirements and the long-term viability of maritime facilities.

The challenge is therefore not only to expand capacity but to ensure that the Caspian crossing remains reliable as cargo volumes grow and environmental conditions change.

Who should finance the next stage?

The next stage will require cooperation between governments, development finance institutions and private investors.

Nurgabdeshov sees logistics hubs, intermodal terminals, warehousing and digital infrastructure as areas where private investment can respond to clear commercial demand. Major rail and port projects require larger upfront investment and depend on infrastructure and regulations across several countries.

“This system-level interdependence is one reason why private capital alone cannot develop the corridor,” he said.

According to him, governments should provide essential infrastructure, improve customs and border procedures and reduce regulatory risks. Development finance institutions can support projects through guarantees and long-term financing, while private investors can focus on commercially viable projects.

The real test is reliability

The Middle Corridor has moved beyond being a transport concept. Infrastructure is expanding, freight volumes are substantial, transit times have fallen, and digital systems are becoming more integrated.

The remaining challenge is to make these elements function as one system.

Railways, ports, ferries and terminals need to expand in step. Tariffs, schedules and customs procedures need greater coordination. Cargo flows need to become more balanced, while infrastructure must remain resilient as the Caspian environment changes.

For Kazakhstan, the stakes extend beyond transit revenue. A reliable Middle Corridor could strengthen the country’s role in Eurasian trade while creating opportunities in logistics, regional production and manufacturing.

The corridor has demonstrated that it can grow. Its next challenge is to demonstrate that it can be relied upon.

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