This isn't going to be your normal game preview. A matchup between the Florida State Seminoles and the top-5 Miami Hurricanes shouldn't feel this lifeless, but that's where FSU's administration has left us.
I'll go into some stats at some point, because there's a reason why a lot of people are predicting this will be ugly. But will it be ugly enough for this to be the final game of Mike Norvell's tenure?
Only FSU's president and Board of Trustees know the answer to that, and trying to predict what they're going to do is like trying to predict whether or not the squirrel is going to dart in front of your car. There's just no way of knowing, and many people are scared that the administration is going to proceed with as much patience as possible. Florida State fans are simply out of patience.
Last Friday's game was another example. FSU had Louisville on the ropes early, up 14-0, and had a 4th-and-goal from the two-yard line to make it 21-0. I liked the decision to go for it, truthfully, but the play call made no sense: a screen to Jasen Lopez, a true freshman wide receiver who had two catches on the season entering the game.
A read option with Ashton Daniels and Ousmane Kromah probably scores, given how much success FSU had up the middle early. Instead, Norvell got too cute, Isaac Brown scored on a 97-yard run on the next play, and that started a 44-6 onslaught for the rest of the game.
Shoutout to one of my friends in our Call of Duty chat the other day for helping with this comparison. Mike Norvell's teams are like a middle school bridge project made out of balsa wood. You add one of those one-pound Pilates dumbbells on top, and it instantly crumbles.
Norvell's teams just cannot withstand any adversity. He comes out with a good game plan, but one play goes off schedule, or one turnover occurs, and everything combusts.
We've seen how low the floor is for a Norvell-led team. We've seen signs of the team quitting on him three years in a row, as there were moments of it in the Louisville game. And they're probably about to be embarrassed on national television against one of their biggest rivals in primetime.
Here are three things to know heading into this game.
Every Advantage Leans Miami's Way
I don't think Miami is as good as they were a year ago, but the rest of the ACC may be so bad that it doesn't matter. They're still clearly the most talented team in the conference.
They've completely eliminated their opposition's ability to run the ball this year. Granted, their schedule has been Stanford, Florida A&M, Wake Forest (pesky team), Central Michigan, and Clemson. Still, they're allowed a total of 213 rushing yards in those five games: an average of 42.6 yards per game and a mind-blowing 1.8 yards per attempt.
Florida State's offense predicates on having success on the ground. Ousmane Kromah is an incredible talent, and Ashton Daniels had success with his legs against Virginia. The RPO and the deep shots are set up by their run game. If FSU can't get it going, there's no point in even getting off the bus.
The lack of rushing yards Miami allows is because they're constantly playing with the lead, so teams feel they need to pass more to try and make up ground, but the yards per attempt allowed is still staggering.
Florida State has also had major struggles with its secondary. Miami quarterback Darian Mensah has completed an insane 84.3% of his passes for 1438 yards and 15 touchdowns and has still yet to throw an interception. That doesn't bode well for FSU.
Don't Expect Mario Cristobal to Let Off the Gas
Miami is averaging 26 points per game in the first half of games this season. They get out to early leads and keep everything at arm's length. They may not coast in this game.
If you remember last year's game, Miami roared out to a 28-3 lead before FSU scored 19 unanswered in the fourth quarter to make it look more respectable, with people wondering if Mario Cristobal was about to have another insane collapse.
That will be fresh on his mind, as will his recruiting visitor list. This is Miami's only meaningful home game all year, as they'll play Boston College, Pitt, Duke, and Virginia Tech at home to end the season. With all due respect to those teams, recruits don't care about those like they do about a historic in-state rivalry.
According to some reports, Miami is going to have more than 80 prospects on hand for this game, including around 10 five-stars. Expect Cristobal to try to put on a show for them.
Mike Norvell's History in These Games
I tweeted this fact out the other day, but Miami enters this game favored by around 21.5 points, depending on the sportsbook that you use. It's the seventh time since 1985 that Florida State has been at least a 20-point underdog.
Five of those have been under Mike Norvell. The Alabama game is not included in this, as that closed around 19 points.
Of the four previous games, Norvell's Florida State teams lost by scores of 16, 22, 49, and 60, which is an average margin of -36.75 points.
Miami was the 22-point loss in 2024, and Norvell is actually 3-3 against the Hurricanes, which is his best record against any of FSU's major rivals. If (when) they lose this game, he'll have a losing record against Florida, Clemson, and Miami. With seven years to show for it, that would simply be embarrassing.
Yet another reason why he simply can't coach here anymore. Plus, it has now been more than 1,050 days since Florida State won a road game.
The last time Florida State had an 11-game losing streak, they were able to end it at Miami in 1974. I have doubts about that being the case here. If FSU loses this game, it would be their longest road losing streak in program history. They had another 11-game road winless streak from 1960 to 1962, but three of those were ties (including one against The Citadel, which I found interesting).
This would be a 12th straight road loss. A simply unfathomable number of consecutive road losses.
Game Prediction
Mario Cristobal's history coming off bye weeks hasn't always been the cleanest, especially considering that they lost to Louisville at home last year after a week off.
The difference is that Louisville was a good football team last year. Florida State is not.
They likely never will be again under Mike Norvell. Which is why, if this game gets as ugly as I think it's going to get, this has to be the last game of the Norvell era. I don't care what the buyout is. There isn't a rant from FSU media and national media that you haven't heard yet, but they can't allow the embarrassment to continue.
Please, someone put me out of my misery.
Miami 48, Florida State 17
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