Former Finance Minister Dr Mohammed Amin Adam has cautioned that Ghana’s growing reliance on Treasury bills could expose the government to refinancing risks, particularly as substantial domestic debt repayments approach in 2027.
Treasury bill holdings increased from GH¢133.9 billion in January to GH¢165 billion in July 2026, a rise of GH¢31.2 billion, or 23.3%.
Bills consequently increased from 39.3% to 41.6% of domestic debt, significantly above the Medium-Term Debt Strategy benchmark of 15% plus or minus five percentage points.
The analysis also found that the stock of 364-day Treasury bills almost doubled, rising from GH¢49.3 billion to GH¢98.4 billion. Meanwhile, the stocks of 91-day and 182-day bills declined by GH¢11.6 billion and GH¢6.3 billion respectively.
Although the shift towards one-year instruments lengthened the bill portfolio, it concentrated a large volume of repayments around mid-2027.
“A Government that must refinance a large stock every few months is vulnerable to auction undersubscription, sudden yield repricing, and liquidity shocks,” Dr Amin Adam wrote.
He warned that the GH¢31.9 billion in net one-year issuance recorded in June and July would mature in the same year as the first DDEP bond redemptions.
He recommended predictable issuance calendars, stronger benchmark-bond markets and a transparent liability-management framework to reduce the risk of refinancing pressures disrupting public finances.