Approximately 67,000 Israelis abroad plan to travel to Israel to vote in the upcoming elections for the 26th Knesset, according to a Thursday survey published by the Fly&Vote initiative, up from the previous estimate of 53,000 published at the start of October.
The initiative, which is operated by the AID Coalition, has recently been the focus of a Likud petition seeking to restrict its activities.
The survey, conducted between October 12 and 21 and involving approximately 23,000 Israelis living abroad, found that 79.6% of respondents intend to travel to Israel to participate in the elections. By comparison, only 14% said they had traveled to Israel to vote in the 2022 elections.
Fly&Vote cautioned, however, that the survey was voluntary and does not constitute a representative sample of all Israelis living abroad. It also noted that the estimate of 67,000 potential voters is based on an analysis of registration data from the initiative, rather than a count of travelers who have actually arrived in Israel.
According to the survey, most respondents (48%) are coming from the United States, 37% from European countries, 5% from Canada, and 2% from Australia and New Zealand. Other participants are traveling from South America, Asia, and South Africa.
Approximately 70% of respondents said that the initiative's activities influenced their decision to travel to Israel and vote, while another quarter said it had helped them obtain information and prepare for their trip.
Likud charges Fly&Vote backers with influencing voters
The findings come approximately two weeks after the conclusion of the legal battle Likud waged against those behind the initiative.
In a petition filed by attorney Ilan Bombach, Likud argued that assistance with securing flights and related services could constitute the provision of prohibited benefits to voters which may influence how they vote.
The proceedings concluded on October 6 with a settlement reached before Judge Noam Sohlberg, chair of the Central Elections Committee (CEC). The petition was withdrawn, but the initiative agreed not to subsidize airline tickets, offer discounts, or organize any additional flights beyond those that had already been offered.
It also agreed to limit related services, including transportation and accommodation.
Likud presented the agreement as a legal victory, while the initiative stressed that its activities had not been prohibited and that it would continue helping Israelis exercise their right to vote.
Unlike in many other countries, Israel does not allow most of its citizens living abroad to vote remotely. They must travel to Israel to cast their ballots in person.
Votes of Israelis abroad equivalent to approximately 1.7 Knesset seats
Yehonatan Bar Sadeh, president of the AID Coalition, said Israelis from around the world were taking time off work and their studies and spending hundreds or even thousands of dollars to travel to Israel. "The future of the State of Israel matters so much to them that they are taking time off work or from their studies," he said.
If the initiative's estimate is accurate and about 67,000 Israelis living abroad travel to Israel to vote, their votes would equal about 1.7 Knesset seats, based on an estimate of around 40,000 votes per seat in the upcoming elections.
However, this would not automatically translate into additional seats for any particular party or political bloc. The actual allocation of seats depends on the election results, the electoral threshold, and how votes are distributed among the parties.
Last week, Israeli law firm Erdinast, Ben Nathan, Toledano (EBN) sent a letter on behalf of the Choosing Israel organization requesting clarification from the Israel Airports Authority (IAA) on its preperations to operate without disruptions on Election Day.
The letter cited concerns that political actors could attempt to disrupt operations at the country's airports in an attempt to prevent citizens from voting and urged the airport to work to prevent such things from happening.
The IAA's recent response, as well as one from the Transportation Ministry's legal advisor, affirmed that the airports would remain open and fully functional in the days leading up to October 27, and on the day itself.
Udi Ezion contributed to this report.